An inside bar again, three days in a row, indecision and emotion accumulation, the breakout will be violent either up or down. Well, I wish I could know the direction, although based on a few straws I've collected from my chart book, the guess is UP.
1.0.8 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, unlike the common believes, extremely low CPC readings are generally bullish. Only the ACCUMULATION of extremely low CPC readings are bearish and by the way, that's why I use "normalized CPC" in chart 2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio to help me identifying the possible top and bottom.
1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, green dashed lines, it seems that every time NAUPV crossover above NAADV, the market is in for a good bounce. Well, let's don't discuss how illogic it is to use NAUPV and NAADV crossover, please. I said in article here Does INDU lead market?, I don't care how illogic something may sound, I read only charts.
2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly), looks topped to me, may pullback and therefore is good for the overall market.
3.1.1 US Dollar Index (Weekly), looks topped too, a Doji. The pullback of $ is good for commodities which may help lift the overall market.
Oh, one more chart about Dow Theory: 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, it's very interesting that the recent TRAN new low wasn't confirmed by INDU. let's see how things going.
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ReplyDeleteI like your "straws" :)
ReplyDeleteI think USD topping is very significant -- a lot of the selling pressure these past two weeks has come from UK/Europe, with their horrible bank earnings, talks of nationalization, and sovereign downgrades. This has led to the Pound and Euro getting hammered, and USD strength.
A pullback in USD could indicate that confidence is returning to the UK/European markets, and should be supportive of equities.
Thanks, sounds very convincing!
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the same. I think there are a lot of things that could set up a 1-2 wk rally. Also possibility we test Nov lows now but I think the bears had their chance last wk but couldnt close the deal. This 800 level in SP500 is being defended like the Alamo.
Im thinking we might need more momentum from above to break through
-still lots of shorts in the system thinking we are going to test nov lows this cycle
-VIX. USD weeklies printed black shooting stars/ dojis
-fins v oversold, daily stochs are ticking up (I use 5,3,3 setting in addition to 12,3,3 to pick up activity more quickly), and lots of pos divergence on 60 min timeframes.
-TRIN
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74899672324&listNum=1&a=159722754
Thanks. Very nice TRIN chat!
ReplyDeletelove you
ReplyDelete