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Thursday, January 22, 2009

01/22/2009 Market Recap: Inside Day

There is no so much to talk about today.  Inside bar for two consecutive days on 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, which means indecision or the momentum accumulation.  Once it breaks out, it will be massive no matter which direction it finally goes to.

7.0.3 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch.  Let's see the targets for bulls and bears on the chart respectively.  Rising up -- if it doesn't go beyond the top blue line then the situation will be bearish.  This is because three days' effort cannot even compete with the down on a single day of Tuesday.  Dropping down -- if it doesn't dive below the bottom blue line, bullish.  Why?  two down days fail to take out the rally on Wednesday.  It seems more difficult for bulls to go beyond the top blue line, especially on Friday not so many people are willing to hold their positions over the weekend.  Therefore the best hope of bulls is actually modest down tomorrow.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  It seems like a symmetrical triangle.  If we just read this chart, the probability of downside move is bigger.

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0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch.  A very simple criteria to judge the market bottom is fear.  How can it fear?  At least three down days in a row, right?  What the bottom isn't in place without fear?  Because without fear no one will cut with loss, and the big money couldn't get the cheap chips and they will keep trying.  Therefore, even the market goes up tomorrow and beyond the high on 7.0.3, bulls shouldn't be too happy because it is most likely a rebound.  If the market goes down tomorrow, there will be more hope since we get two down days already.

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Posted by Cobra at 10:10 PM

6 comments:

  1. UnknownJanuary 23, 2009 at 3:38 AM

    it may be a silly question, but could you explain what BB stands for? thnx

    ReplyDelete
  2. CobraJanuary 23, 2009 at 8:56 AM

    Bollinger Band

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJanuary 23, 2009 at 5:49 PM

    Good Evening,,

    Just thought i would remind you, CAT is before the bell monday,90% chance of miss there, should pull the market into a buying area..

    can make money on this if played right..

    Mac

    ReplyDelete
  4. CobraJanuary 23, 2009 at 5:51 PM

    Got you, thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousJanuary 24, 2009 at 8:28 AM

    I guess your theories didn't hold true yesterday again. It didn't break out big down, in fact it didn't break either way.This market is too dangerous to use technical data. It just becomes blackjack in Vegas.

    ReplyDelete
  6. CobraJanuary 24, 2009 at 12:14 PM

    Well, consolidation again. Eventually it will breakout. Now I guess it'd be on the upside. :-)

    ReplyDelete

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