Short-term, a bounce is close.
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), besides lots of positive divergence which usually leads the price rebound, pay attention to green cycles, if TICK has several -1000 readings on the day, good chances a rebound the second day. So from the TICK point of view, we might be at a short-term bottom or at least not far away. Also EMA21 has been tested 4 times, the more it's being tested the higher the chances it'll be broken.
5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily), reversal day. STO and RSI seem to agree as well.
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), rejected by the resistance, sell signal on STO, likely to pullback further which is good for the overall market.
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There appear to be a number of significant points of resistance on the XLF chart (e.g., 20MA, 50MA, top of channel).
ReplyDeleteHow high do you believe the probabilities favor XLF moving on the short-term bounce?
Test Triangle bottom first.
ReplyDeleteHow high do you think this bounce will go (in S&P)? Will it make higher highs (above 944)?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I don't know for how high. Let's wait for the first rebound before speculating "how high", as the market may (like usual) slap me on the face tomorrow. :-) From $NYMO, I can see a big move tomorrow, just not sure about the direction.
ReplyDeletecobra,
ReplyDeleteMy line up is v much in line w yours.
Im looking for a 1-2 day retrace and for volume to pressure the market heavily. Vol is already ticking up. But big sell off might not happen until Monday though.
I unloaded my SRS SKF today waiting for a potential bounce. We are oversold as all hell and didnt go down much on the 60 min timeframe
Slap !
ReplyDelete"Crashes come from oversold conditions”. Ben Lichenstein
Regards,
dave
Hmm, after a sleepless night, now you're happy with your huge put. :-)
ReplyDeleteVampires don't sleep :)
ReplyDeleteBad news is i didn't buy enough; but that kind of bad news is always good news isn't it my brother ?
Just teasing about the slap; it happens to all of us - except for the liars.
dave
dang! I love it when I sell my SKF/ SRS and then they start moving...
ReplyDeleteEvery time I use "Rebound" as the title, I always get slapped the next day. It's not a joke, I hesitated last night for a long long time for using this kind of title. Well, guess this can be used as an indicator, as soon as Cobra put "Rebound" as the title, short right way! :-)
ReplyDeletei'm gonna cure Cobra of that. Gonna put Cobra in a basket with a D-back.
ReplyDeleteBtw, bro, i've got a pair of red python cowboy boots. You wouldn't believe how many people believe me when i tell them that's their natural color - red python, sure.
dave
I'm going to have to remember the "Cobra 'Rebound' Title Indicator," because I got my #$% handed to me today long in financials. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteAm I hallucinating, or did you change the wording on your charts page from "A bounce tomorrow will be" to "A bounce tomorrow might be" ??? I'm pretty sure it was originally *will,* because it struck me as being an unusually unequivocal statement...
ReplyDeleteCobra is a very smart analyst. However, i never hold anyone else responsible for my errant trades. That's part of being a responsible, independent, mature trader.
ReplyDeletedave
It's OK Dave, I think it's just a tease. And I did replace the "will be" with "might be" because I did know that "Rebound Title" rule. This was the 2nd time it happened. The first time it happened, I haven't opened this blog yet. Anyway, it's a good trading indicator. :-)
ReplyDeleteHi! Any post tonight? I guess you are as confused as everyone else :-)))
ReplyDeleteright away! :-)
ReplyDeleteI did lose my #@$ today by being long financials, but Cobra is correct, dave...I was teasing him. I was already holding financials long overnight before his blog posting, so my loss was already baked into the cake.
ReplyDeleteOut of the gate Wednesday, the news flow pertaining to financials was terrible, and of course that trumps a short-term mean-reversion play.
I will align myself with the prevailing winds as market action unfolds. The trend-followers have piled in on the short side, and that creates an opportunity to squeeze out the weak hands in the short-term.
Thanks. At least I was right for one thing. :-)
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteAnd it's a good thing that you were just teasing him because i would hate to search thru cyberspace and come beat the cr*p out of you.
Besides, i jealously preserve MY right to criticize him.
As Rodney King said, "Can't we all just be Crips ?"
dave