| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation! | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped. |
| Short-term | Down | Neutral to overbought* |
| Report Focused On | Buyable dip or the market topped? |
| Today’s Summary | Bulls need to break above SPX 875 tomorrow to prove themselves. Expect a pullback at least tomorrow morning. |
Today’s rally is expected, and I still expect further big correction on the way. Let’s review 8.0.3 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change 2008, note the red circles on the chart, the last stage of the uptrend is usually range bounded. After several rounds of N vs N if bears claim the victory, the uptrend is changed to the downtrend. Now bears just won the first round of 3 vs 1.
7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change. One down day vs one up day, bears probably won. Why don’t I say bears win today? As mentioned in previous reports, higher high overrides anything else, so uptrend would be intact if bulls could push SPX higher than 875 tomorrow. What about bulls made 875 the day after tomorrow? Well, if bulls took three days to cover the one day damage caused by bears, the uptrend should be considered as weakening.
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min). The rally stopped right at Fib 50 and was rejected by MA200. STO is overbought and formed a negative divergence. Therefore the market should at least pull back tomorrow morning.
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals. Over the intermediate term the market is still overbought.
T2120 from Telechart, 26 Week New High/Low Ratio, still overbought, a pullback is still needed.
What stocks are you holding Cobra?
ReplyDeleteNo time for individual stock because of this daily report.
ReplyDeleteHolding mainly 2x/3x ETFs. Have both long and short.
I learn so much from this blog! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI hope you don't hold 3X ETF's. Those are capital killers. FAS or FAZ will eventually ended up ZERO. I'm day-trading them and not holding overnight. I'm holding SDS at current time only. What 2X and 3X you're playing?
ReplyDeletepeter pan, i have been following for several weeks . your charts are very helpful. bullish and bearish wedges have been right on. THANK YOU
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing all of your hard work. Excellent analysis!
Have you done research on n vs n rule in the weekly time-frame that you care to share?
Xman, I play indice only nowadays, really no time for others. Frankly, I've sacrificed a lot for this daily report. Sincerely wish it's really helpful.
ReplyDeleteWiredPirate, n vs n on weekly has too few instances so I'm not sure.
Dear Cobra, we really appreciate your sacrifice. For 3 weeks since I've been reading, you're efforts have helped learn so much already. My eyes are beginning to see things I didn't see before. Thanks so much for helping to educate the masses!
ReplyDeleteThanks. Juding by your id, why don't you go to my Chinese forum for my daily report?
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteAs a point of clarification if you have the time could you please review how you might interpret the n vs. n rule as it currently relates to NDX. For example to qualify as meeting an n vs n comparison do you have to close higher than the previous n period high or simply touch higher than the n period high and close positive?
Thanks much for all you do!
NDX doesn't represent the broad market, but anyway, 1 vs 2, I consider bull lose today on NDX.
ReplyDelete