Live Update

Saturday, April 4, 2009

A trend table will be used from now on

  Trend Momentum Comments - Click here for how signals are used. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down    
Intermediate Up Overbought Hold long.
Short-term Up Overbought May need take profits.
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary A trend table is needed to prevent confusion.

From comments I saw some confusions here, so from now on, I’ll use a trend table like above to avoid confusions. As this is just a market recap not a trading recommendation report, so more often than not the focus is about finding the top or the bottom and therefore it may seem like it is sometimes against the current trend. So it’s necessary to have a trend table here to make it clear what the current best trading action is so as to separate it from what the report is mainly focused on.

I think I said I’d buy dip here 03/23/2009 Market Recap: Very Short-term Overbought although I didn’t believe this rally and till now I still don’t believe it. But the emotion is the emotion, the trade is the trade, they’re totally two different things. Whether I believe it or not, I’ve kept saying that I don’t argue with the signals. And here is how I “don’t argue with the signals”, Don't know what I say everyday? Here's a simple version.

Posted by Cobra at 12:01 AM

13 comments:

  1. ajvsApril 4, 2009 at 12:12 AM

    Hi Cobra,

    It was very helpful you hints yesterday. Tonight I was playing with some of those recommended sentiment indicators. I found that MACD is very handful to find turning points. Zweig is very accurate when the lines are crossing.

    At least for me, we are having only consolidation noise (ADX is almost 20). The truth is still behind the scenes and it is very nasty.

    Another horrible suckers rally!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Me XManApril 4, 2009 at 8:48 AM

    Didn't do too well with my little short positions. We'll see what market brings next week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. maximusApril 4, 2009 at 11:31 AM

    Cobra

    I like the summary table but hope you will continue to present the details that lead you to the summary each day. It's a great service you provide to your readers.

    thanks again

    Maximus
    http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. CobraApril 4, 2009 at 11:48 AM

    Thanks maximus, the summary table is an addition. Details will be posted as usual.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 4, 2009 at 9:05 PM

    Cobra,
    What you make of the low $CPC values? The 20 day SMA is lowest in 3 years!
    Also, what is the scale on the $CPC chart 8.1.2? I liked the -0.11 line predicting tops, but can't translate to current CPC values.
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. CobraApril 4, 2009 at 9:16 PM

    Lowest in 3 years is nothing, CPC may go to zero, haven't you heard that the worst is over? With 4T$ printed and bank no longer has to write down, don't you think we're going to see a new high pretty soon (Dow 15,000 maybe?) and this will be the most bullish bull market ever? :-)

    I cannot translate -0.11 to CPC value, because at different time the value is differnt. It's NORMALIZED CPC, i.e. it's a relative value.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousApril 5, 2009 at 12:55 AM

    Cobra,
    I don't know if you are serious about $4T or just sarcastic.
    What I do know, that stocks surged on 9/22/09 on TARP money printing and short ban. That was a great selling opportunity that I missed and lost a lot. Now it feels just like then. This time I'm selling.
    My sentiment indicators are showing a major top or very close to one (within a couple of weeks).

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousApril 5, 2009 at 2:20 AM

    How can you NOT know that Cobra was being sarcastic? If someone made such a statement seriously, would you really read their trading blog?!


    Cobra, thank you for the new Trend Table. It looks like an excellent addition to your blog!

    ReplyDelete
  9. CobraApril 5, 2009 at 11:23 AM

    Yeah, I remember Sep last year very well. But now it's a little different. Yes, I believe a top is closing but this is April, the 3rd most bullish month in a year, remember April last year? So no hurry in selling, let's wait for solid trend change signals before doing something naughty.

    ReplyDelete
  10. UnknownApril 5, 2009 at 2:36 PM

    Cobra,

    Your commentary is always helpful and CPC analysis is certainly helped me a lot. Keep up the good work.

    Having said that, you stated that April is the 3rd most bullish month - I believe that the first two are November and December. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also, where can I get the list of bullish/bearish months in the right order?

    Thanks a lot for your daily analysis. It is one of the best available soruce of information.

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownApril 5, 2009 at 2:36 PM

    Cobra,

    Your commentary is always helpful and CPC analysis is certainly helped me a lot. Keep up the good work.

    Having said that, you stated that April is the 3rd most bullish month - I believe that the first two are November and December. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also, where can I get the list of bullish/bearish months in the right order?

    Thanks a lot for your daily analysis. It is one of the best available soruce of information.

    ReplyDelete
  12. CobraApril 5, 2009 at 6:03 PM

    Yeah, Nov and Dec. But I don't have the right order, I think might be Dec, Nov, Apr. I forgot where I saw that Apr is the 3rd most bullish month in a year.

    ReplyDelete
  13. UnknownApril 7, 2009 at 12:51 PM

    I'll try this too. i hope it will really help

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    ReplyDelete

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