| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation! | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral | According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped. |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral |
| Report Focused On | Buyable dip or the market topped? |
| Today’s Summary | Bears have spent 2 days in vain to push the market down, so a buyable dip could now be formed. |
Tomorrow is the Fed day, the market may roller coaster after 2:15pm, so the final result is unknown. Overall the market looks very resilient, although not dropped much but almost all the overbought signals have been corrected, therefore bears don’t have much edge now. Bulls on the other hand may have some edges, not very strong though:
7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change. Bears have tried hard for the past 2 days but failed to recover all the ground previously bulls made in the same two days period. Although, bears still have 2 days to push SPX down below 826 to prove themselves, but at the current stage, bulls do look stronger. So, according to 7.2.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, probably this is a buyable dip.
NYSE Intraday Cumulative Tick from www.sentimentrader.com, TICK is not oversold yet, but it does not have much room on the down side either.
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min). A possible Symmetrical Triangle is in the forming and therefore there’re 75% chances that the SPY will breakout on the upside.
1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), STO oversold plus ChiOsc way too low, at least the market should rebound tomorrow morning.
3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), break down! Expect TLT to go further down, which means the money may flow into the stock market.
7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, both SPX and VIX are down on the same day, according to the patterns marked by blue dashed lines, the market seems more likely to go up in the short term.
Too risky at this junction for me. I'll stay out and see where market is heading. Your assessment is right on track. Market just doesn't want to go down at this point. Buy at every dip but not going up as much.
ReplyDeleteCobra. What do you think of lower high and lower low we're seeing last few days.
On daily chart, there's no lower low yet. As for lower high, if no lower low first, we cannot say lower high.
ReplyDeleteHi Cobra, The previous comment might be in reference to what Tom Knight pointed out in this post: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/28/meat_market.htm
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteI am also amaised by the resilience of the markets and failure to tip over. I even question myself if this is analogous to spring 2003. However, I noticed that markets went down while Tick and NYADV went up yesterday. This is first time in 2 months!
I guess smart money is queitly (very quetly)leaving while dumb money and institutions are buying on guilt they missed the March 9 bottom.
One more thing, maybe the selling will not start before May 4 stress test news. That would be the classic "sell on news" as well as "sell in May" combo.
ReplyDeleteCobra, you were right about the strong April warning.
Market is going up. The Dow Jones is going to 10,000.
ReplyDeleteAgree with post yesterday: it looks like we may be seeing an accelerating move to the upside.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteBears losing the fight?
ReplyDeleteWhy?
ReplyDeleteMarket broke 882 but closed below 874.
ReplyDeleteDoes that break mean a win for bulls?