| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation! | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped. |
| Short-term | Up* | Neutral* |
| Report Focused On | Buyable dip or the market topped? |
| Today’s Summary | Bulls need to break above SPX 875 with great margin tomorrow to prove themselves. Nasdaq 100 way outperforms the other indices but breadth disagrees. |
7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change. One down day versus two up days (please see comment area for why I count today as an up day), bears won. Bulls have to break above SPX 875 with great margin tomorrow to prove themselves, however the uptrend would still be considered weakening even they could make it because that would be three days’ effort for recovering one day’s damage. For people who are not familiar with N vs N rule, please refer to 8.0.3 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change 2008. A change of character, yes. But this does not mean the market would plunge right away, one day does not make a trend, so I believe the market will seesaw while bears would win more and more during the next several rounds of N vs N.
7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch. 63% of the chance we will see the market close in green tomorrow because CPC is below 0.8 today.
There are not so many interesting topics today, let’s bash Nasdaq. :-D AAPL seems very excited during the after-hours trading, but I doubt how high Nasdaq can still go. Here are the reasons:
1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, overbought in the intermediate term.
Take a look at the QQQQ breadth, very obvious negative divergence.
Let’s see how Semi is doing, which takes a very big share in Nasdaq. Although Semi way outperforms Nasdaq recently, breadth looks terrible and seems completely contrary with its performance.
In Rydex mutual fund, the investment on Internet is crazy, and this seems no good according to the historical record.
Hi Cobra. I enjoy your site and commentary. Just wanted to alert you to a small problem. I usually read your site using the Google RSS reader (reader.google.com), but it has trouble interpreting your entries. I think it's because of the table you include at the top of your posts. Anyway, just thought I'd give you a heads up. Thanks again for this great site.
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ReplyDeleteGot you, thanks. But I don't know if there's any other way to fix this unless I move the table to the end of my daily report.
ReplyDeleteHi Cobra, you said "One down day versus two up days, bears won." I thought there were 2 down days and 1 up day, 4/20 and 4/22 were down days while 4/21 was an up day. How do you come up with 1 down day and 2 up days? Thank you.
ReplyDeleteHi Cobra,
ReplyDeleteWould you please define your "Long""Intermediate" and "Short" term? How long are they respectively? Thanks,
Jack
Today's high is higher than that of yesterday, so it should count as an up day - well, at least half day, therefore bears have 1 and half day to make a lower low to prove themselves.
ReplyDeleteFor long, intermediate, short term definition, just clike each, you will see charts, the buy/sell signals given on each chart are how I define up and down in each time frame.
chart 7.0.4 says that "24 out of 38 days the second day closed in green," "among those 13 failed cases...", should be 14 failed cases? (38-24)
ReplyDeleteFriday should be interesting day.
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