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Thursday, April 16, 2009

All Up Day

We call an “All Up Day” when SPX, US Dollar, Oil, Gold and AGG bond ETF are all up on the same day. Ever since year 2007, we had 6 all up days, all had led to very unpleasant days thereafter. Some are saying that today is an “All Up Day” which I don’t agree as Oil represented by $WTIC was actually down today. However if one replace $WTIC with USO (which is the oil ETF) then we get an “All Up Day” today. I’m not saying that today is an “All Up Day” though, the purpose of this post is:

  1. To introduce an “All Up Day” concept so that later it happens again, we all know what to do.
  2. I kind think that “All Up Day” is an intermediate-term top signal not merely means a down day next day as most people have believed. And since on 3/26/2009, we’ve already got an “All Up Day”, so does this mean that we’re not far from a top? (Well, once again, you all know I don’t trust this rally, but I’m not trading against it now, so this is just a quick thought, I don’t mean to call a top. Let the market go first, as I’ve been saying.)

This is where I originally got the “All Up Day” concept: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/

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And chart 7.0.5 All Up Day Watch will be my char to observe the “All Up Day”.

AllUpDay

Oh, don’t forget to check today’s report. This is in addition to today’s report. Thanks.

6 comments:

  1. Cobra,

    At your earliest convenience, please add "All Up Day" charts that extend back much further (e.g., 1999 - Present). That would give us far more data points from which to infer patterns.

    If you don't have access to such a graph, but you DO have access to the dates of every "All Up Date" over the last 10-15 years, then I could assemble a basic chart and/or statistical analysis and send it to you to post.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cobra, big thanks for your regular posting on this blog! You have very consistent methodology. I trade for two years, and learned a lot from your approach.

    As a side note, quite a few big US banks will be doing secondary offerings this week and early next week - after which this market can tank in earnest (which is consistent with your analysis too).

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sorry, I don't have All Up Day data. All I have was posted here. :-(

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Cobra,

    Today (and yesterday) seem very mixed with regards to various indexes and commodities, as if things have gotten out of synch...

    E.g. today oil is flat (at the moment), copper and gold are down, NAS is up, SP is up a bit, DJI is down a bit, financials are down, but some individual ones are up (AIG, C). Yesterday was similarly 'disorganized' but in different directions.

    What's interesting to me is that things are still moving up despite this chaos.

    Now if volume would stabilize - Then this idea floating around that we will have a multi week (month?) rally would appear to be assured.

    ...A bear market rally, of course. : o

    ReplyDelete
  5. Great work!

    What percent of return you made consistently in the past few years? The reason I ask is that we are here to make money. I have a very different approach to profit nicely in this market consistently. We can talk more if you give me your email address.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Cobra:

    I have studied your uploaded charts over the past 2 weeks and notice that you use the following MACD parameters for the following timeframes:

    1) 15-minute SPY is MACD(13,34,1)
    2) 30-MINUTE SPY IS MACD(5,20,1) + MACD(20,50,1)
    3) 60-MINUTE SPY IS MACD(21,55,1) WITH CHAIKIN OSCILLATOR (3,10) ON ALL TIMEFRAMES.
    4) 30-MINUTE XLF IS MACD(5,21,1).

    QUESTION #1:

    WHAT IS THE HIGH (H) AND LOW (L) THRESHOLDS FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE MACD'S?
    ON THE XLF, YOU HAD H = + 0.4, L = -0.4

    QUESTION #2:

    WHAT ARE THE MACD PARAMETERS FOR DAILY, WEEKLY AND 10-MINUTE?

    THANK YOU!

    ReplyDelete

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