| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation! | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral* | According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped. |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral |
| Report Focused On | Buyable dip or the market topped? |
| Today’s Summary | Still doubt the market’s ability to hold any further gap up open. Still expect QQQQ to pullback. |
No idea about tomorrow. For the intermediate term, my forecast is still seesaw unless SPX could close above 875.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 5 unfilled gaps are still there, so bears don’t need to worry about gap up open the next day, which should be very tough to hold.
2.8.3 SPX:CPCE gives a sell signal now, which is the second intermediate-term sell signal after 7.0.6 Weekly STO and the Market Top/Bottom. However I am not sure if it’s a whipsaw. I’ll seriously consider these sell signals only after SPX has formed its first lower low (low < 826).
QQQQ has gone up for 5 consecutive days now, but I think a pullback is imminent. The reasons are:
- 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, three up days with declined volume, this pattern has a high probability of pullback.
- 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, overbought.
- 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), the negative divergence has lasted very long. Usually the longer the negative divergence lasts, the more reliable is the pattern. So this chart looks quite bearish to me.
- QQQQ breadth, overbought plus negative divergence, these should be corrected soon or later.
- Semi breadth, overbought plus negative divergence too.
Speaking about QQQQ breadth, let’s take a quick look at the XLF breadth, by the way, also overbought plus negative divergence.
Good stuff Cobra. Keep it coming.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Futures not looking good this morning. Need a long red stick today.
ReplyDeleteAll aboard for a melt-UP!
ReplyDeleteIs the whipsaw action nearly impossible to trade? Sometimes sitting out in cash is the right move, huh?
ReplyDeleteNo position is a position.
ReplyDeleteAgreed about the market meltup. There are fundamental reasons to be bearish right now, but the intraday price action appears to suggest that we may see an accelerating move to the upside that could cause some serious damage to traders that are short.
ReplyDeleteIts going to be really interesting to see what Cobra has to say tonight.
Cobra, would greatly appreciate your view on an entry point and stop for qid ? IMHO it looks like a good risk/reward opportunity.Thanks for all the hardwork you share with us.
ReplyDeleteIs the trend changing yet?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the market is setting up for a sharp run upwards.
ReplyDelete