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Sunday, April 26, 2009

04/26/2009 Canadian Market Report

I believe short-term the TSX will follow the US market to pullback.

7.4.2 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO 30 min), looks like a Bearish Rising Wedge to me, so expect a pullback soon.

XIU30min

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min), oil is way too overbought on the 30 min chart, this is not a good news for TSX which is heavily weighted with the energy related stocks.

USO30min

 

For intermediate-term, I’m not sure because I’ve noticed a possible Ascending Triangle formed on the S&P energy sector, it’d be very good news if it could break above the triangle. But on the other hand, I see negative divergence on TOAD which definitely is not a good sign. Guess we’ll have to wait to see how the market unfolds itself. The key is the oil, if the oil is keep going up, then all the negative divergences will have to wait.

5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily), a possible Ascending Triangle is in the forming.

XLEDaily

7.4.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index (Daily), pay attention to the negative divergence formed on the TOAD above.

TSXDaily

7.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator, the same negative divergence can be seen on TSE McClellan Oscillator, also TSXA50R is way too high which in the past was likely a market top even in a bull market.

TOAD

Posted by Cobra at 9:10 PM

2 comments:

  1. PebsApril 26, 2009 at 11:26 PM

    Wow, thanks for the TSX report. I am sure there are a lot of Canucks (me included) that read your analysis every night.

    Keep up the great work!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 27, 2009 at 8:42 AM

    This is interesting, but isn't TSX highly correlated with SPX and european markets as well?
    I know that there is some correlation of TSX with commodities, but short term everything trades in sync (program arbitrage trading?).

    ReplyDelete

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