09/08/2010 Market Recap: Back to Back Unfilled Gaps on Both Side

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH BEARISH 6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): VIX BB short setup triggered. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 09/07 S *Cover short tomorrow.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: NO IDEA, COULD SEE MORE PUSH UP?

I don’t see anything worth blah blah today, so have to see tomorrow. Since there’re a few potential top signals in the table above plus we’re now in the 09/07 to 09/10 time window, so beware of the risk of at least a short-term pullback. However, because of the potential Bull Flag mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary so there’s still a chance that the market would make at least one more push up before pulling back. The chart below shows another reason for expecting one more push up: No RSI negative divergence yet.

 

As mentioned in yesterday’s report, indeed back to back unfilled gaps were formed on both upside and downside. I expect to be filled pretty soon, the only question is who gets filled first? Again no idea, let’s see tomorrow.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT 3 LEG UP, MINI SPX 100 POINT FROM 08/27 CLOSE

See 09/03 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	LA
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	*UP		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	*LA
CANADA	*DOWN
BOND	*LA		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	*LA	*SELL
GDX	*DOWN		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high, pullback? *3.2.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): Double black bar, pullback?
OIL	LA		4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): USO to SPX ratio too low, rebound?
ENERGY	LA
FINANCIALS	LA		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	LA		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS	UP

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
*LA = Lateral Trend.