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Thursday, September 30, 2010

09/30/2010 Market Recap: Watch SPX 1136

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down, not confirmed thought. I hold short position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11
BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.
09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish.
09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback?
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback?
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week.
*6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term?
09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH, BUT SPX NEED TO BREAKDOWN BELOW 1136 TO CONFIRM THE DOWNTREND

The bottom line, bulls are not optimistic:

1. SPY formed another Bearish Reversal Bar (Open high, goes higher high but closes in red) today which is the 2nd Bearish Reversal Bar within 4 days and the 4th consecutive reversal like bars.

SPYBearishReversalDay 

2. Could be a typical A = C pattern, in terms both price and trading days. Also it is within the 09/28 to 10/01 time window that seems a logical time for a trend change to happen.

PriceAndTimeAnalysis 

For now, the downtrend has not confirmed yet. Bears still need to push bulls down below SPX 1136 to confirm the short-term downtrend (see 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern at the bottom of the chart below) which if indeed, I expect at least 2 leg down thereafter. The only thing not sure for bears is whether the back test to the broken trend line was enough or the high at 1157 still needs to be tested? We’ll have to see tomorrow. While for bulls, apparently hold above 1136 is absolutely necessary while to resume the bullish uptrend, a decisive breakout above 1157 is needed.

SPX60min 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQQ LA 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP *Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
CHINA  
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
*1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Black bar, pullback?
CANADA UP TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
*Black bar, pullback?
BOND LA 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO UP *Black bar, pullback?
GOLD UP *Hanging Man?
GDX *LA 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL UP *Breakout, bullish.
ENERGY UP *Black bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.
Posted by Cobra at 10:01 PM
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