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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

09/29/2010 Market Recap: Breakout Wanted ASAP!

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is not clear, I hold partial long overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11
BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.
09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish.
09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback?
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback?
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week.
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term?
09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

SHORT-TERM: BULLS NEED A BREAKOUT, THE LONGER THE CONSOLIDATION THE WORSE THE CHANCES

Short-term direction still depends on which side breaks first, SPX 1148 or 1122? See 09/27 Market Recap for more details. However, as exclaimed by the title, bulls need a breakout as soon as possible because the longer the current consolidation goes the worse the situation for bulls. As illustrated in the chart below, since March 2009, a consolidation usually meant a top and on average it took 5 days to consolidate before a big pullback kicking in, while now the market has already been consolidating for 3 days. In another word, all bears need are to hold the current consolidation range for 2 to 3 more days then probably the gravidity would come to rescue.

Consolidation 

1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), the Ascending Triangle is confirmed today, now we will see if bulls can make a breakout tomorrow. Remember, the breakout must be huge, otherwise it still could be seen as a consolidation which according to the chart above, is not bull friendly. The question is: Is huge up possible? I recommend to take a look at today’s After Bell Quick Summary, because a potential Firework trading setup could be triggered and if so then bulls may have good chances.

SPY15min 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQQ LA 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP
CHINA  
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA UP TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
BOND *LA 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO UP
GOLD UP
GDX UP 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL *UP
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS *DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS *DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS *DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.
Posted by Cobra at 9:18 PM
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