Live Update

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

09/28/2010 Market Recap: Ascending Triangle?

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11
BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.
09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish.
09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback?
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback?
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week.
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term?
09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

SHORT-TERM: BULLS ON OFFENSE BUT BEARS MAY STILL HAVE CHANCES

Short-term direction still depends on which side breaks first, SPX 1148 or 1122. See 09/27 Market Recap for more details. For now bulls are on offense as an Ascending Triangle could be formed. If breakout and up HUGE tomorrow, then bears will have to retreat to the next consolidation area before any potential counterstrikes could be seriously considered.

SPY15min 

Of course, bears still have chances, except that according to 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, short at today’s close cover before 09/30 close, the odds were 12 out of 13, there’re 2 charts in favor of bears:

VIX Leads SPX. The divergence is a little bit large so the signal might worth some points.

VIXLeadsSPX 

CPCI is a little too high, although not extremely high, but still can see some bearish edges on the chart.

CPCIWatch 

A reader asked again about what happened when both VIX and SPX closed in green. Well, see chart below, just a little little little little bearish biased toward tomorrow.

SPXandVIXDivergenceWatch 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQQ LA 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP
CHINA  
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA *UP TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
BOND UP 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO UP
GOLD UP 2 black Bar in a row, pullback?
GDX *UP 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL *LA Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
ENERGY *UP Bearish reversal bar plus Hanging Man?
FINANCIALS *LA 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
REITS *LA 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
MATERIALS LA Bearish reversal bar?
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.
Posted by Cobra at 8:22 PM
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