09/15/2010 Market Recap: No Title

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/21 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped? 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black bar, top is close? 6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch: Price volume negative divergence. 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP

Nothing to say today, maintain the forecast mentioned in 09/13 Market Recap: Expect a pullback, but it may occur after a few days small up or consolidation.

From the chart below, a consolidation under an important resistance (red horizontal line) usually has a little better chance to breakout on the upside especially now it could simply gap above the resistance tomorrow morning without any serious fight. Yet, still, unless we see a huge up, I mean really huge, otherwise the negative divergence shown on chart would become much larger that eventually it has to be corrected via a little bigger pullback, if indeed SPY breakout on the upside tomorrow. Besides, don’t forget, if SPY gaps up tomorrow morning unfilled, then it’d be the 18th SPY unfilled gaps which tied the historical record.

 

The chart below shows divergence between VIX and SPX again and this time it becomes a little larger. Whether it implies a possible trend change, I’m not sure as I don’t know if the Friday’s Triple Witching has any influences on it. Let’s wait and see.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLISH IS TO BE REASSESSED

See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality.

Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high. 1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily): NAADV MA(10) too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP	Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	*Hollow red bar, pullback?
CANADA	*LA	*TOADV MA(10) too high. Hanging Man and Shooting Star and Hanging Man again, more pullback?
BOND	*DOWN
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*LA	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	LA
ENERGY	LA	2 Doji in a row, doesn’t look good.
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high. *3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Hollow red bar, pullback?
MATERIALS	*LA	*2 hollow red bars in a row, pullback?

*LA = Lateral Trend.