09/02/2010 Market Recap: Pullback?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Closed long added on 09/02. Hold partial long taken on 09/01. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH 6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: TICK MA(3) TOO HIGH, COULD SEE PULLBACK SOON

A very unique thing today is that TICK MA(3) is extremely high which means at least a short-term pullback is due very soon.

 

Tomorrow is Non Farm Payroll day again. I’ve mentioned lots about the usual pattern of this day – open high may close lower while open low may close higher. For more details please take a look at 08/05 Market Recap. The only thing I want to remind you is if unfortunately a red day tomorrow, then be careful about a possible trend change as my next pivot date around 09/07 to 09/10 may indeed come true.

 

The chart below is interesting because it was exactly the same I mentioned on 08/05 Market Recap: If gap down unfilled tomorrow then the gap will be filled within days because back to back unfilled gaps are very rare, at least not seen on the chart below. Therefore if indeed we have a gap down unfilled tomorrow which as mentioned above could mean a possible trend change (since it automatically means a red day), no need to worry, because the gap will be filled very soon which guarantees that bulls will have chances to escape unharmed.

 

The chart below explains what I mean “back to back unfilled gap”.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN	BUY
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP	*SELL	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN		*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means US$ rebound tomorrow?
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN	*BUY	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN	BUY	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN	*BUY

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.