09/01/2010 Market Recap: Tradable Bottom

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up, I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH 6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? *6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *Potential short triggered on 08/31 not confirmed and no longer valid.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: PRICE TARGET SPX 1084 OR 1094, TIME TARGET 09/07 TO 09/10

Firstly, let me correct one error. In today’s After Bell Quick Summary, I said because CPC <= 0.81, so there’re 67% chances a green day tomorrow. However the final CPC reading was adjusted to 0.82, therefore the bullish statistics for tomorrow is no longer valid. The other 2 statistics are all slightly bearish, plus the Labor Day seasonality for tomorrow is not very bull friendly (See 08/27 Market Recap), so the conclusion should be tomorrow is slightly bearish.

Anyway, overall, the rebound shouldn’t be just one day wonder, so even indeed tomorrow is slightly bearish, it should be a healthy pullback. The reason is 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch, tradable bottom if 2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days.

 

I mentioned the next pivot date could be around 09/07 to 09/10 in 08/27 Market Recap. At that time however, I wasn’t sure it means a pivot top or pivot bottom. Now it looks like that it is a pivot top. The chart below should have provided more evidences together with the estimated price target.

 

If not clear about the Triple Bottom mentioned in the chart above, the SPY 60 min chart below should be more clear. There’re 64% chances for a Triple Bottom to meet its text book target, by the way.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN	*BUY
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	SELL
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN	SELL
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN	*BUY	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.