04/05/2011 Market Recap: Ascending Triangle or Double Top?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A Beware the winning rate is below 50%, it’s the gain/loss ratio that matters. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss. Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon. Short-term UP 03/29 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, LET’S WAIT FOR TOMORROW

Clueless today, breakout on the upside then we’ll have an Ascending Triangle while breakdown we’d have a Double Top. For now, it’s really hard to say which side weights more, so let’s see tomorrow.

Two charts worth some attentions, neither are extreme enough, so info only.

SPY had 3 consecutive reversal like bars (solid black bar = open high close lower but still above the last close, hollow red bar = open low close higher but still below the last close, both imply that bulls and bears are fighting for the control therefore could mean a reversal is pending) which looks bearish. However, since those reversal bars stopped working recently so I’m not sure if they’d work or not this time.

OEX option traders keep buying put. As I mentioned before, historically, those OEX option traders are usually right, so this is not a good sign.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP	Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	*04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.