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Thursday, April 7, 2011

04/07/2011 Market Recap: More Pullback?

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A Beware the winning rate is below 50%, it’s the gain/loss ratio that matters.
ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss.
Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon.
Short-term *? I hold both long and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE WEAKNESS AHEAD

My guess is the pullback isn’t over yet. The main argument is ChiOsc is a little too high. Just take a look at the dashed red lines to see what happened in the past when ChiOsc was a little bit high.

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Another argument is, strictly speaking, SPY now has 7 consecutive reversal like bars, at least should mean something, shouldn’t it? Listed below, again, are all the past important bottoms since the year 2009 bull market, I’m not saying “n vs n” this time (even, it’s all about n vs n, bulls still lost this time, remember?), I want you to pay attention to the blue horizontal lines, then tell me, do you see any past cases that before a new recovery high that SPX consolidated a lot (like we do those days)? All broke to a new recovery high without taking a breath, right? So at least the up momentum this time is weaker than the previous times, isn’t it?

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43

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 04/05 L
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
DBA & Weekly DOWN

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
Posted by Cobra at 5:31 PM
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