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Thursday, April 14, 2011

04/14/2011 Market Recap: VIX:VXV Too Low

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few TradingMarkets long setups trigged on 04/12.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited.
My Thoughts There’re some chances that an intermediate-term top was in.
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A Sell signal could be triggered, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw.
CI Buy & Hold 12/03 L N/A *Close long and sell short if today’s low is broken and red day tomorrow.
CI Swing *Long setup not confirmed and no longer valid.
*Short if breakdown 04/14 low and a red day tomorrow. Stop loss is 2.0*ATR(10).
Short-term DOWN N/A I hold both long (trapped) and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: CLUELESS, LET’S SEE TOMORROW

Four cents:

  1. Clueless about tomorrow, seasonality is very bullish though. Please see today’s After Bell Quick Summary for more details.
  2. The biggest concern to me is till the VIX:VXV which is way too low. Some are saying that because of OE, so VIX should be ignored. Maybe true, but since in most cases when VIX is way too low, it means a pullback ahead, so personally, I won’t think that this or that time could be different, otherwise it’d be very hard to act objective.
  3. The short setup from Cobra Impulse System was not confirmed today but is still valid. Need breakdown below today’s low and eventually close in red tomorrow to confirm of course.
  4. As of today’s close, the Non-Stop sell signal does not look like a whipsaw anymore. Although, you still could choose to wait for a few days but officially in my report, I’d say that Non-Stop is now in sell mode. As mentioned yesterday, since the winning rate of this model is just 50%, so the sell mode doesn’t prove bearish, please be noted.

Take a look at VIX:VXV. I want your attention to those blue arrows which are recent OE Days. It’s true, VIX was at almost the lowest point approaching the OE Day recently, but as long as after the OE Day, VIX rebounded, the SPX also pulled back. So what I’m trying to say is, I don’t think a low VIX around OE Day should be ignored.

VIXtoVXVRatio

A little about the trading for Cobra Impulse System today is in the chart below. Because the back test software cannot handle exact entry and exit price, so for now I cannot eliminate all the confirmations required for each setup, so if you cannot wait until the close to confirm the setup, you need some experiences to handle the intraday trading. Guess, we’ll have to live with this reality for awhile. I’ll explain in more details about this in other post later.

CobraImpulse

Since the sell signal in Non-Stop is very clear now, so I’ll officially recognize it as in sell mode.

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
  2. April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
  3. Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly DOWN
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly *04/14 S
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
DBA & Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
Posted by Cobra at 8:42 PM
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