04/11/2011 Market Recap: More Bad Signs

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Top confirmed? *0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Top? My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A CI buy & hold 12/03 L N/A CI Swing 03/16 L 04/07 L Long position stopped out on 04/08. Short-term *DOWN N/A I hold both long and short overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT NOT SO BRIGHT AHEAD

Three cents:

1. Could see rebound tomorrow. If, however, another red day, for SPX down 4 days in a row, buy at close and sell the day after tomorrow, you’d have 74% chances.
2. I see more bad signs today so there’re chances that the intermediate-term top was in. At least be careful in the short-term.
3. Trading wise, buy dip today might worth a bet, not sure though, but if the market keeps going down tomorrow, I’ll be on the bear side.

So, why rebound tomorrow?

I’ve mentioned one reason for a green day tomorrow in today’s After Bell Quick Summary. The 66% chances for tomorrow may not sound so great but here seems a solid one from Quantifiable Edges.

Another reason is quite a few short-term indicators from Sentimentrader are oversold, especially the STEM.MR Model. After all, officially the intermediate-term trend is still up so it’s much safer to trade on oversold than to trade on overbought.

Now, bad news:

Looks to me, all sizeable pullbacks since the 2009 bull market begun with SPX three consecutive down days.

OEX option traders are still buying huge amount of puts.

0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, too high.

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, the top signal should be confirmed today. Frequent readers of this blog should know this is a very reliable signal.

VIX:VXV too low. It didn’t work well recently but I think you still need to pay attention because theoretically it’s bearish when implied volatility in 90 days is higher than the implied volatility in 30 days.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
2. April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
3. Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP	Too high above weekly %B.
XIU & Weekly	UP
TLT & Weekly	DOWN
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	04/05 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.