SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE REBOUND TOMORROW BUT NOT SO BRIGHT AHEAD
- Could see rebound tomorrow. If, however, another red day, for SPX down 4 days in a row, buy at close and sell the day after tomorrow, you’d have 74% chances.
- I see more bad signs today so there’re chances that the intermediate-term top was in. At least be careful in the short-term.
- Trading wise, buy dip today might worth a bet, not sure though, but if the market keeps going down tomorrow, I’ll be on the bear side.
So, why rebound tomorrow?
Another reason is quite a few short-term indicators from Sentimentrader are oversold, especially the STEM.MR Model. After all, officially the intermediate-term trend is still up so it’s much safer to trade on oversold than to trade on overbought.
Now, bad news:
Looks to me, all sizeable pullbacks since the 2009 bull market begun with SPX three consecutive down days.
OEX option traders are still buying huge amount of puts.
0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, too high.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, the top signal should be confirmed today. Frequent readers of this blog should know this is a very reliable signal.
VIX:VXV too low. It didn’t work well recently but I think you still need to pay attention because theoretically it’s bearish when implied volatility in 90 days is higher than the implied volatility in 30 days.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE
See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR
- Monday before expiration, Dow up 14 of last 21, down 4 of last 6.
- April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 14.
- Income tax deadline, generally bullish, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
|QQQ & Weekly||UP|
|IWM & Weekly||UP|
|SSEC & Weekly||UP|
|EEM & Weekly||UP||Too high above weekly %B.|
|XIU & Weekly||UP|
|TLT & Weekly||DOWN|
|FXE & Weekly||UP|
|GLD & Weekly||UP|
|GDX & Weekly||04/05 L|
|USO & Weekly||UP|
|XLE & Weekly||UP|
|XLF & Weekly||DOWN|
|IYR & Weekly||UP|
|XLB & Weekly||UP|
|DBA & Weekly||UP|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.