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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

04/19/2011 Market Recap: VIX collapsed while OEX put/call ratio surging

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
04/11-4/20 04/17 : 04/20 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11, 04/20
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited.
My Thoughts There’re some chances that an intermediate-term top was in.
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop 04/15 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
CI Buy & Hold 04/18 S N/A
CI Swing 04/18 S 2*ATR(10)
Short-term DOWN N/A I hold short position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: CLUELESS, LET’S SEE TOMORROW

Nothing interesting to say today, bulls stopped right at the first resistance before the market closed, so have to wait until tomorrow for the story of the next chapter. My guess is, if A = B, then there should be more on the upside.

1

There’re two things I’d like your attention today:

  • VIX collapsed again and VIX:VXV ratio is now way too low which seems worked fine recently. However, as mentioned in the 04/15 Market Recap, very low VIX can be bullish if decisively breaks down its years long support. So I won’t bother to make my guess here, let’s just wait and see.

2

  • OEX Put/Call Ratio surged again which should mean bearish at least short-term.

3

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: MIXED

See 04/15 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 04/18 L
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
Posted by Cobra at 6:45 PM
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