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Thursday, January 15, 2009

01/15/2009 Market Recap: Reversal Day

Today is a reversal day, but we have to see if tomorrow is a follow-through.  Because of a few puzzles, the market may only bounce in the short term should it takes off from tomorrow, and the trend is still down over the intermediate term.

Four criteria for the reversal day are the following:

  1. New low;
  2. Close > Open;
  3. Close > Yesterday's Close;
  4. Heavy volume.

The reason we may get a follow-through tomorrow:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, STO buy signal, and RSI is still oversold which looks promising.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  It stands above EMA21 for the first time in the past seven days, and MACD gives buy signal too.  So it looks good.

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2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily).  VIX seems turning down which is bullish to the market.

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Why I think the intermediate-term trend is still down:

1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days.  We saw a Major Distribution Day yesterday, and it seldom appears in single, which means the market might dive down one more time.

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1.2.6 INDU leads the Market.  INDU has a lower low today ahead of SPX and COMPQ, and the latter two may follow afterward.

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2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.  NYADV lower low means SPX may make a lower close compare with yesterday's close level.

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11 comments:

  1. glad to see that you did not use 'rebound' in your title. :o)

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  2. What nullifies the downtrend ? Does the close above 880(50 DMA) signify the uptrend ?
    Thanks.

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  3. I'm surprised this blog entry wasn't titled "Market might move in the opposite of down on Friday (not, repeat, not a reb***d) but everything else sucks, so don't do anything" lol

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  4. Summary of Cobra's post: maintain a flat position, skip Friday and spend a long weekend licking your wounds...unless you are dave, in which case you should have closed your financial sector puts today with wicked gains, and take a long weekend to celebrate.

    ;)


    (I love that Cobra's readers have a good sense of humor, whether they are winning or losing at a specific point in time. Major kudos to Cobra for a good sense of humor, great analysis, and a willingness to quickly admit error. In my experience, this somewhat rare combination of traits is a hallmark of the best traders.)

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  5. Thanks, guys. The rule is simple, whenever I say "Due for rebound" short right away but be sure to cover the 3rd day morning because the 3rd day will be up.

    To null the downtrend, I need to see some of my indicators turning bullish. Not just MA50.

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  6. Thanks Cobra. Always helpful.

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  7. Cobra already knows i sold my January puts yesterday & am buying Febs today.

    dave
    P.s., Cobra has no sense of humor; he's just wicked warped.

    ReplyDelete
  8. dip holds above Thurs’ late dip @ SPX 834; then rallies slightly above today’s high for inauguration Tues then we sell off & break 817

    dave

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  9. Just want to say, thx for your great information! Great Blog!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous,

    I'm deliberately feeding you misinformation unless you're a different "Anonymous".

    dave

    ReplyDelete
  11. There appear to be several other "Anonymous" posters on this blog, dave. I'm guessing that name is pretty common. ;)

    ReplyDelete

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