Summary:
Breakout plus several intermediate-term buy signals triggered today.
Expect a pullback tomorrow.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up* | Neutral | Some buy signals still need further confirmation. |
| Short-term | Up | Overbought* |
Bulls won today, the one month range was broken on the upside with lots of intermediate-term BUY signals triggered. I don’t argue with signals, but as I still think it’s not a good sign to have a very high bond yield under the current economic conditions, so I personally will not heavily bet on the long side. Tomorrow, because very short-term is very overbought, so a pullback is expected.
0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, this is the overall signals I have in my chart book.
3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, this is my biggest concern. It looks like a continuation pattern to me, so I suspect that the yield will keep rising.
OK, now let’s take a look at all my excuses for expecting a pullback tomorrow.
7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, when both SPX and VIX were up on the same day, a down day would be the next day. Also the most suspicious thing today was that both SPX and VIX were up big. VIX and More has an interesting post about it: Eerie Déjà Vu as VIX and SPX Both Jump More Than 2.5%.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), RSI overbought is quite accurate on this chart, plus don’t forget there’re 7 unfilled gaps now. Yes, statistically gap is meant to be filled, just sometimes it takes a year to fill. But for 7 unfilled gaps, I don’t think it needs a year to fill at least 1 gap.
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), I believe oil will have a pullback soon.
T2103 from Telechart, Zweig Breadth Thrust, I trust this chart very much.
Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, this chart also works pretty well recently.
Cobra,
ReplyDeleteWhen you look on that first chart, back in the December area, you can almost see the exact same pattern occurring. If you draw a trend line on the upper candle on December 8th and take it straight over to the December 16th-17th candle high, and then draw another trend line from about the December 14th low to about December 29th... you can see that the 943.85 high was clearly a "false" upside breakout of that channel.
I believe that is exactly what we are seeing here again. I think we might have a few more days up, then a down trend will begin similar to the on after the 943.85 high.
Could you draw a those trend lines for me and re-post that chart?
Thanks,
Dan Black
Dan, thanks. Here's the link: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p90500010170&a=169491344
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra. It looks almost the same. I guess we'll see if it happens again in the next few days. By the way, several Astrologers have "turn dates" occuring this week. Question is... do we turn up or down? This is one of those "Head's they win, Tail's I lose situtions... isn't it?"
ReplyDeleteDan
TA Goddess Helen Meisler agrees
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/rmoney/technicalanalysis/10507495.html
Just found her, she's awesome.
Bulls bulls bulls!!!!!
ReplyDeleteFrom the brilliant mind of Schweizer:
ReplyDeletehttp://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/big-picture-a-kiss-goodbye
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/june-1-spx-and-heavy
Fork them, bears lost.
ReplyDeleteBulls won.
I predict there's a 62% chance bears will continue getting reamed!
Schweizer, thanks, nice chart. Wish you could be right.
ReplyDeleteMarket has tried real hard the whole morning to hold at 940. Would not be surprised that MMs are trying to gather both sides of orders and to see which side to screw first. It is not healthy for market to be up everyday. We really are due for a pull back today. Hope to see SPX to go down to low 930 at least today for a healthy correction. Not good for the bulls to have up days everyday without any correction either. Money needs to roll out of the financial, energy and commodity to the other oversold sectors such as airlines and shipping.
ReplyDelete