Summary:
Short-term bulls have a little edges.
Some "no good" signs may eventually have negative impact on the intermediate-term.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral |
No conclusion today, let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow. Short-term bulls have a little edge, not very sure though. Intermediate-term, lots of “no good” signs, just I have no idea when those signs will have negative impact on the stock market.
Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, oversold, so the market may keep rebounding tomorrow.
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), a black bar is formed, which may mean a pullback, and currently the pullback of the US$ is good for the stock market.
Some “no good” signs for your info:
1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily), unlike SPX, institutional core holdings index hasn’t reached a higher high yet, this is a negative divergence, which may mean that the recent SPX higher high was not made by institutional accumulation. From the Institution Buying and Selling Trending (Courtesy of www.stocktiming.com), also we can see that institutions weren’t the major part of the recent rally.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), SOX still lags. Statistics show that it’s good for the broad index whenever SOX leads, while no good for the broad index whenever SOX lags. From the chart, we can see when the market formed a bottom in Mar, SOX and COMPQ had a positive divergence, while now, they have a negative divergence.
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, rose again which means more (perhaps extremely) pursuing riskier asset, this usually is not good.
3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, yield cannot rise forever as the rising borrowing cost does no good for the economic recovery and this also means that the stock market cannot rise forever. Just right now I’m not sure where the limit is.
Truly great stuff.
ReplyDeleteI think we could see a H&S on IWM 60M. Just something to keep an eye on.
Rik
Cobra - Our bank list gets shorter!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/tarp-repayment-announcement-on-tuesday.html
CPC cracked down trend line today.
Nice work as always,
Shanky
Thanks, Shanky!
ReplyDeleteCobra, I think your work is great. I have a question about the intermediate term. I remember back in March seeing a lot of strength in the Hang Seng before the U.S. began to rally. Now I'm thinking the Hang Seng is showing some weakness since it's down about 5% from it's highest point since the rally began (18,961 - intraday high on June 3rd). Any insight on this is appreciated. Thanks Again for Everything!
ReplyDeleteCobra never sleeps.
ReplyDeleteOK, maybe just a little, but it seems like never.
You might enjoy this, in thanks for all your work:
ReplyDeletehttp://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/beware-of-the-recession-ending
There appears to be divergence on the daily S&P that would indicate a little deeper correction to what we have seen so far in this uptrend.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=20&id=p91984141199&a=170375398
I heard that China will lead the market. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteAnd Schweizer, nice post, Thanks!
Divergence, yes, I saw a lot, just it's difficult to know when it's going to work.
ReplyDelete