Live Update

Monday, June 22, 2009

06/22/2009 Market Recap: The first lower high and lower low

Summary:

Expect SPX 878 to be tested.

Expect a short-term rebound.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

The significance of the today’s drop is the very fist time since the March rally a lower higher and lower low is formed. So bears finally see some hopes that odds are higher now an intermediate-term down trend is forming. Well, officially as long as SPX 878 holds, the intermediate-term down trend is not confirmed.

NvsN

There’re 3 reasons, I believe at least SPX 878 will be tested soon.

1. Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships: 1820 stocks price down volume down, this means that the market is not oversold yet.

2. According to Measured Move, the SPX text book target is right at 874.

SPX30min

3. 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing, in a down swing, if NYADV forms a lower low, it usually means that SPX will have a lower close ahead.

NYADV

I have no idea if SPX 878 would hold on the test or not. I’ll pay close attention to 1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily). Because the support (thick red and green line) on the Institutional Index is more important than that of SPX 878 (thick blue line), as that support was also an important support in Dec last year while SPX 878 is only the support for this year. So if the Institutional Index couldn’t hold its support, then very likely SPX 878 would be broken. Well, let's watch this line closely.

XIIDaily

Short-term as mentioned in the after bell Quick Summary, I expect a rebound tomorrow. More specifically, because TICK closed bellow -1,000, so according to 7.0.3 Extreme TICK Readings Watch, 100% (Well, nothing can be 100%) tomorrow SPX will close higher than the open (intraday reversal), and the chances of finally closing in green are also very good.

TICKWatch

Posted by Cobra at 10:41 PM

2 comments:

  1. RicherJune 23, 2009 at 12:10 AM

    I saw last chart, all three instances of second down day is becuase first day is gap down. Today the market is gap down, so tommorrow may be down again.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jeff Pietsch CFAJune 23, 2009 at 2:31 PM

    Thank you for your good work Cobra.

    http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2009/06/062309-bear-test-bull-pop.html

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.