The below chart shows, when both SPX and VIX closed in red the same day, 70% chances a green day next day.
But since VIX reached a new low again today while SPX still hasn’t reached even a SWING high, I see some similarities in the following chart.
So which one to believe, it’s your call. Personally I’m more willing to believe that this time we’re in that 30% chances which means a red Monday.
I still believe it’s a sell-able bounce according to “n vs n” rule. And since very short-term, QQQQ is extremely overbought, so perhaps betting on QQQQ to pullback next Monday is safer.
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you are too bearish! Do not let this blind you.
ReplyDeleteI have been reading your blogs regularly and have immensely enjoyed it. The bulls use the 2003 year as a similarity to this run. Have you looked into it? It feels strange all of a sudden all banking problems related to defaults are gone along with unemployment going above 10% and loss of so much wealth. Paul L.
ReplyDeleteFinancials and Banks were strong on Friday,..that should be supportive of additional upside. They have been leaders since the March low. Thanks for sharing your work.
ReplyDeleteJim
“Personally I'm more willing to believe that this time we're in that 30% chances which means a red Monday."
ReplyDeleteThen, what are the other 70% chances stand for?
70% chances SPX will close in green next Monday because it seemed that whenever both SPX and VIX closed in green recently the next day was an up day 7 out 10 times.
ReplyDeleteCobra, I feel the chance of significant upside are in play for Monday. I predict $INDU 8657, 230 up day. Hope all is well, Analyze.
ReplyDeleteI did some research on GDX and missed this one, had the target right. Here it is.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/06/27/a-missed-opportunity-in-gdx-a-basket-of-gold-miners/
whether your a bull or a bear let's not put too much importance on friday... it was either the lowest volime or the second lowest volume in the last 6 months...(reference SPY, and QQQQ)
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteI think we are almost ready to have a nice correction down to the 50% or 61.8% Fib lines. Looking at your 2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly) chart on page 3 of all your charts I see that if you were to draw a upward sloping trend line from the 9.39 (Dec 07) low to the 15.82 (May 08) low, and then continue the line until today, you would see that we are almost touching that long term line.
I believe the VIX will bounce up from that line and the market will correct down when that happens. Since Tuesday, June 30th, ends the 2nd quarter I think the down trend will start on July 1st. Now it could start Monday, but I think they will try to hold it up to complete this quarter positive.
Plus, if I were to count Elliottwaves, (using your page 1 chart labeled 1.0.3a S&P 500 Large Cap Index (30 min)), then the move down from the 956.23 high to the 888.86 low would be Wave 1 (or Wave A), then the move up would be Wave 2 (or Wave B), and Wave 3 (or Wave C) is coming next.
Wave 3's (and wave C's) are the most violent, according to Robert Prechter, founder of Elliottwave International. Whether or not it is a Wave 3 or C doesn't ready matter... as they are both violent.
Inside that Wave 2, (or B) back up from 888.86 to Friday's high, is a series of 5 waves. The 5th wave looks almost complete. I think we will flounder around staying just below the 927.09 high until Wednesday, which would make that last wave 5 complete.
Being that wave 5's are usually about the length of a wave 3, (or sometimes shorter), a couple of more days to stretch it out would be reasonable. Of course the market is never reasonable.
But, it's just some "Food for Thought", as no one can accurately predict this market.
Dan Black
Hi Cobra.
ReplyDeleteThis markets is incredible.
AAPL try to push market high.
VIx down and down.
SPX continue below 928 and 935.
My 2 cents.
Enjoy the weekend Cobra It`s very nice visted your site.
SPX - Update Daily and Hourly
Close last friday 918.90(-1.36)
Bulls try to break important range [935-921] but close again below 928 and 935. Vix new lows again lose 1.7%.
Readjust numbers because spx visited target short-term this week.
Below 928 I expect [880-893] again.
Below 935 I expect [790,820] medium term.
Suport important big picture [880,893]
Important Monday
-Resistance Hourly range[921,928].
-Suport 913 and 896.
-Control MACD hourly and 913.
MACD near new sell signal.
Close hourly below 913 we will see 896 and bears will try to attack important suport [880-893].
Plan for Monday
Open more short if:
New sell signal macd hourly and close hourly above 913 rule number 3,4,6.
Click to zoom in.
New post soon.
Enjoy the weekend.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/06/spx-update-daily-and-hourly_27.html
One more thing about ndx
AAPL:QQQQ top of the range;
Gain/losses ndx friday. Look who many points gived AAPL last session.
Enjoy.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/SkYtPfWShaI/AAAAAAAAASU/yE8jFTUOHo0/s1600-h/Last+friday.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_MJqKtyMMr28/SkYs0NVJEHI/AAAAAAAAASM/KA07RqZbQj4/s1600-h/QQQQ+28062009.jpg
Thank you guys, really are very valuable info. I'm checking my chart now to see if really I'm too bearish...
ReplyDeleteAbout Window Dressing, statitics shows no such kind of things, by the way.
Let me send you I more post.
ReplyDeleteNew Post.
With these levels of compliance should be near the top of a medium-long term.
I do not believe in running to 1,000 + on the spx.
I do not believe that two consecutive weeks will close above 956 in the coming months...
Above that value can go up to 4000 the spx is not my movie. I will walk more than a week to make this update.I love doing this post. kkkkkk.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/06/spx-should-be-near-top-of-medium-long.html
Cobra,
ReplyDeleteI disagree with your second chart. In May NYMO was down but now NYMO is back up, Monday may be a 3% meaning 200 pts up day for the Dow
2c
head and shoulders at 930 on spx...short then and ride it to the 880 neckline and then put a trailing stop and let the market take you out. good luck..we are still in a bear market just remember that.
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your work, which is incredibly helpful to set up short term trading tactics.
As to window dressing: statistically the end of quarter window dressing might not be an issue, but these are very special times. The financial sector has every interest that the closing prices on Tuesday look real good in the statements. It’s Monday morning and I’m watching European markets: there are clear signs of window dressing.