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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

06/23/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

I see no edges for either bulls or bears tomorrow mainly because tomorrow is FOMC which means anything could happen after 2:15pm ET.

Simply from the SPX daily chart, today’s Doji bar is 64% more likely to be a continuation pattern then a reversal pattern plus today’s Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships has 1002 stocks price down on decreased volume which also means a continuation. So I still see that SPX 878 will be tested (not necessarily tomorrow though).

NvsN

Oh, in case you’re still interested: Here is the most recent Institutional Buying and Selling Trending chart from www.stocktiming.com. (Today’s data is not included)

instbsell

17 comments:

  1. Thanks for sharing!

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  2. Does the accum. bottom? Its now at levels of March lows, so is this a bullish development?

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  3. But I see those two doji today and Friday are omenous. A down leg is on the card.

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  4. Arkady, as long as Dist > Accum, the trend is down.

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  5. Maybe you can investigate this, as my charting-fu is low.

    If you only follow one market sentiment indicator, it should be the 5% VIX rule.

    The potential edge lies in buying the market and stocks when the VIX is at least 5% above its 10 day ma, and to lock in gains (and also not buy) when the VIX is 5% or more below its 10 day ma.

    http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/AboutTM/general/tmtradingrules/07282005-44482.cfm

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  6. Fair enough Cobra, thanks ;)

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  7. I have a chart to watch VIX deviation from MA10. Normally I use 10% deviation and even for 10% deviation, some statistics show that there's no "opposite" edge therefore after a short-term counter-trend move, the original trend will continue. Only 20% deviation is worth trusting for a possible reversal.

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  8. The site with the VIX 5% rule seems targeted on short term trading.

    Would you say that the VIX 5% (or 10%) rule is successful for 1 day SPX scalping? If it's not too much work.

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  9. Cobra, I'm seeing psar flip on DJ-30 and SPX hourly chart. What do you think about that? I'm thinking that we are going to see relief rally before 2:15pm BIG NEWS.

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  10. Regarding the Rut, I read on another blog that the RUT is being changed up this Friday which may account for the selling you noted, with 274 companies being removed and 149 being added to the Russel 2k.

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  11. Thanks for your charts Cobra.
    2 cents only that
    Spx close below 935 = 895.10(+2.06)
    Between range that I predict to very short term.
    Below 908 I expect [880,893] very short term.
    Below 935 I expect [790,820] medium term.
    Remember two possibles scenarios:
    Dont`t break range [880,893] and we will see pullback again target expect between [935,921].
    Break range [880,893] and we will see soon 850.

    If spx close hourly above 908 I have to reduce some shorts.
    Tomorrow resistance Hourly 908,900. Macd near to invert again but have to confirm with a close above 908.
    Wednesday’s Economic Data
    8:30 a.m. May Durable Goods Orders
    10:00 a.m. May New Home Sales
    2 p.m. FOMC Meeting

    Click to zoom in.
    http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/06/spx-update-daily-and-hourly_23.html

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  12. VIX 10% rule is OK for one day trading.

    Sumit, generally before FOMC the market tends to go higher.

    Carlos, thank you very much for your info!

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  13. ckeltner, thanks for the info. Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume relationships are just for reference.

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  14. Nice charts. Very appreciated.

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  15. Cobra,
    I really appreciate that you are posting the Institutional Buying and Selling Trend Chart.
    It really helps to see the forces that move the market.
    Please keep posting this chart on a regular basis.

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