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I'm not the one who requested it, but thanks for posting it. I think this is one of the most useful stats out there.
ReplyDeleteCobra, your lable "warning" is that warning to bear or bull? It seems institution start to pick up accumulation again?
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteHow would you interpret that particular chart? Last time that the blue and red line separated like that was in October of 08? Predicated a month long rally...
Seems like there is still distribution, but not as clear as it was earlier..
I didn't put that "waring" it's the original chart.
ReplyDeleteI only see negative divergence on the chart but it doesn't mean anything right now.
Warning is for both bears and bulls, I guess. That is a junction which anything could happen, sideway, up or down. What the chart is looking for is a significant different between distribution and accumulation, so that it will take time to get them cross (a change in market direction), thus give the trader time to unload their position.
ReplyDeleteThanks buddy. Great work
ReplyDeleteCobra,
ReplyDeleteI had been a regular reader of your blog for last few weeks. I ca only trade through RYDEX funds so have restrictions.
I am thinking hard whether to go long today EOD or wait for some time. Let me know your thoughts
Bill
Bill, not go long today, at least I won't.
ReplyDeleteWhat news on the horizon will offer the opportunity of a pull back? We just surged through a key technical level which forced a lot of program buying. Even so, there doesn't appear to be anything that will trigger much of a pullback, so how does one guage the best chance to go long?
ReplyDeleteIt is unlikely we'll retest S&P 900 anytime soon--let alone close below the 200MA. And since the first week of June is generally bullish, when should someone like Bill expect to finally go long? Most everyone continues to lose opportunities in this "raging bull".
I just said not today. I might be wrong, after all if I were 100% correct, I'd not be here blogging. :-)
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I really don't know if we should take a full scale long here especially if the fund doesn't allow you to trade daily. For years I learnt from trading is it's acutally a game of waiting...
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteWe may get a retest of the 200 day moving average, but don't expect to bargain hunt below that for quite some time. Cobra's market view may present that opportunity this week whether it be tomorrow or the next day so consider that your change to go long.
COBRA... Vix green Spx green.. Good time to short for overnight?
ReplyDeleteWe might have a pullback tomorrow but it maybe a very small pullback.
ReplyDeleteI acutally consider the VIX and SPX both green on the day like this as a disbelieve of this rally, therefore, yes, there'll be a pullback, but it should not be a sign of a top so it's actually not good for bears.
ReplyDeletevix could mean absolutely nothing. window dressing, friday->monday adjustment or other possibilities. hard to say.
ReplyDeletefinancials lagging badly was a sign of weakness today though.
Yea I saw financial lagging badly today. I think we are done for this weeks rally. We will move down from here into the close of the week.. Maybe Friday will be a choppy day but from what I saw today, we will move down for the rest of the week.
ReplyDeleteno one really cares what you think =\
ReplyDeleteI see somebody wants to go long here !!? so let me remind in some important basics of technical analysis:
ReplyDelete1)you want to be long at the sharply down daily 200 moving average ?
2) volume today was not confirming the break of the trading range.
3) price outside the upper daily bollinger band and it was flat in friday
4)we are at a clear resistance near 945 area in all charts time frame (you shouldn't be buying at resistance)
5)we just broke the triangle which is usualy appears before a reversal? in wave B of an (ABC) or in wave 4
6)The hourly RSI level at overbought
Finally,there are more and more signs that tells you it is very risky to be long here but I don't want to post a long comment.
KaKa2009
Copra, I thank you again for your great work, I don't follow the market before reading your report.. thanks
ReplyDeleteKaKa2009
Jay,
ReplyDeleteThe financial sector IYF just pierced the resistance with a good volume and closed above the triangle trading pattern. When you look the last few month, IYF alway moved up and make triangular consolidation pattern and then moved up again.
I think IYF could move 10%-15% before making another triangular pattren. When you play with FAS or FAS option, that is quite interesting.