Live Update

Thursday, June 18, 2009

06/18/2009 Market Recap: Weak Rebound

Summary:

Tomorrow could be up then down.

Seasonality not so "bull friendly" next week.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

The rebound today was weak. 7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1130 stocks price up volume down, this is a bearish readings.

RUA

About tomorrow, some info has already in the 6:00pm ET Quick Summary. Because the intraday model from www.sentimentrader.com is very close to overbought so I suspect we might see an intraday pullback if the market continues up tomorrow morning. (There’re possibilities that the pullback has already started, not sure.)

IntraDayModel

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), looks like a Bear Flag which means the market may continue down eventually. The STO indicator bellow also argues for a possible intraday pullback tomorrow.

SPY30min

Seasonality from www.sentimentrader.com, the first 4 trading days next week are not so “bull friendly”.

Seasonality

So, to summarize, if the market up again tomorrow especially if not up substantially, bulls better take profits while bears could test the water. Although officially the downtrend hasn’t confirmed yet, but I think the sell signals from 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, are worth trying, after all, this still is a bear market, so to follow a sell signal is relatively safer than to follow a buy signal.

SPXMidTerm

Posted by Cobra at 10:17 PM

11 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 18, 2009 at 10:59 PM

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2centsJune 18, 2009 at 11:09 PM

    Cobra,

    Just wonder if you can post a chart on the spread of decline issues vs decline volumes and see if it has the same effect as what you've shown in $nyadv & %nyupv..thanks

    2c

    ReplyDelete
  3. CobraJune 18, 2009 at 11:26 PM

    2c, here, bottom of the chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-09-01&id=p27325415249&a=170216962

    ReplyDelete
  4. 2centsJune 18, 2009 at 11:47 PM

    So thanks Cobra, but the same cannot be said of the decline issues vs volumes except when it is down turn they really close together...your thoughts?

    2c

    ReplyDelete
  5. EricJune 19, 2009 at 12:58 AM

    Options set in the morning... since they are mostly calls.... and the market likes to hurt everyone.....

    ReplyDelete
  6. vimalJune 19, 2009 at 8:53 AM

    Hi Cobra
    Where did you get your data from for the Russell? I see different data showing advancing issues for Thursday of around 1589 whereas you have 1130. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousJune 19, 2009 at 9:48 AM

    Thanks Cobra any data or thoughts on the typical time between major distribution days or the accumulation day that follows the distribution day. In other words on average should we expect another distribution or accumulation day by next week or might we on average wait longer.

    Thanks for your work

    ReplyDelete
  8. CobraJune 19, 2009 at 9:51 AM

    Vimal, I use Telechart EasyScan to get Russell 3000 data. It's not advancing issues. I scan for price up volume down issues.

    For the 2nd major distribution days, I guess it needs a couple of weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousJune 19, 2009 at 3:09 PM

    Cobra, it seems SPY chart is mess up today, I guess they had a dividend pay out? Today blow off top of E wave I mention should had SPY go above 93 but it didn't. So I guess the $SPX or SSO would serve the purpose better?

    Frnak

    ReplyDelete
  10. CobraJune 19, 2009 at 3:54 PM

    Yeah, ignore SPY chart for today. They'll adjust it tonight, I think.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousJune 19, 2009 at 5:41 PM

    Lot's of nuclear talk of late... so I guess our government (Obama/FED) will nuke ourself without having others to do us the favor?

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1137-The-Dumbest-Thing-Ive-Seen-Yet.html

    Also the saying "As goes California so goes US of A". So maybe California will set of a nuke chain reaction also? That's 2 nukes!

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/california-to-get-multi-notch-downgrade.html

    And save the best for last... Thank GOD our market is regulated!

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/houston-we-have-330-pm-lift-off-right.html

    ReplyDelete

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