01/04/2010 Market Recap: Breakout Confirmed but Too Many Short-term Warnings

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped. 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears. Short-term *Up Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: *15 unfilled gaps. 01/04 Recap: *Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.3 SPX: *CPC MA10 is too high. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100: *NADNV is too low. 1.1.0 Nasdaq: *NDXA50R is too high.

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted 12/28 on SPY daily black bar. *Covered most of the short positions flat but still hold a small part waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short more.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L   Breakeven Reversal Bar      Stopped out long position on 12/31 with gain. NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances, price could drop. EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): *Breakout, need follow-through though. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Could be a bearish Roof pattern in the forming. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Under long term resistance with MACD sell signal. *Condition improved today, could be a breakout of the Roof pattern on the upside, need see for more confirmation. REITS   OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): *Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming.  GOLD   DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Hollow red bar could mean a rebound.  BOND

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BREAKOUT COULD BE CONFIRMED

The daily chart looks like a typical breakout then pullback setup, so probably the market will be up more.

The possible target is in chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), Fib confluence area plus long term trend line which is around 1150ish.

The bottom line, no question, intermediate-term is up. Just right now there’re too many short-term bearish signs. The total number and the extremeness have exceeded that of 2009 March and July push up. How the market is going to handle these bearish signals are remained to be seen.

SHORT-TERM: COULD UP MORE BUT BEWARE OF LARGE NUMBER OF BEARISH SIGNALS

www.sentimentrader.com yes again has total 39% of all its indicators are at bearish extremes. The last 2 times I mentioned this were on 12/14/2009 Market Recap and 12/23/2009 Market Recap.

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, CPC MA10 too  high.

0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, NADNV (Nasdaq down volume) too low.

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), NDXA50R  (Nasdaq 100 number of stocks above MA50) too high.

The bottom line, all the warning signs above don’t necessary mean an immediate drop but certainly it looks that there maybe not much up side room left either. Let’s wait and see.

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE