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Monday, March 7, 2011

03/07/2011 Market Recap: The trend is still up

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/04 Market Recap: OEX put/call ratio too high, could be choppy ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term DOWN? 02/18 High
02/24 Low		 Hold both long and short. This means the trend is unclear so wait. 03/04 long was closed flat, now hold new long entered on 03/07.

SHORT-TERM: THE TREND IS STILL UP

As mentioned in today’s intraday comment, there’s still not even a lower low on the intraday chart so by definition the trend is still up (bullish biased). However, at the current stage both bulls and bears should be careful as the trend is not crystal clear. See my short-term model for example, on one hand I hold the short position while on the other hand I keep buying the dips and this will go on until either direction is proven wrong. LOL.

1

The chart below from another angle also argues for a bullish bias. Well, maybe everything will change tomorrow, let’s see.

2

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP?
XIU.TO 02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly UP Too far above BB top.
XLE 03/04 L
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly ? Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
Posted by Cobra at 5:12 PM
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