03/01/2011 Market Recap: Very Very Bullish Bearish Engulfing

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven *Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term *DOWN 02/18 High Hold short position until stop loss being hit.

My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

SHORT-TERM: COULD JUST BE A SHORT-TERM DIP, INTERMEDIATE-TERM REMAINS BULLISH

A Bearish Engulfing pattern is formed on the SPY daily chart today which supposes to be a bearish reversal 79% times. However the back test since 2003 seems very very bullish, except no clear edge for the next week. So my guess is that although the test of the 02/24 low is still quite possible (see today’s After Bell Quick Summary), but the recent pullback could just be a dip in an intermediate-term uptrend, as so far no evidences arguing that this is something significant. The conclusion, by the way, conforms with the conclusion I drew in 02/23 Market Recap based on the statistics about 2.5%+ pullbacks after 40+ straight up days.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. The March seasonality chart below is from Sentimentrader.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.