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SHORT-TERM: DON’T EXPECT BIG UP TOMORROW, BUT NEW HIGH COULD BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME
Although SPY hasn’t made a higher high yet, but a strong up day like today won’t simply fail the next day, plus the statistics given by 02/23 Market Recap and 03/01 Market Recap, both are saying that the recent pullback is just a dip, so now chances are pretty good that we’ll see a new high soon. However, whether after a new high the market will go to Galaxy far far away is still a mystery as I don’t have any solid evidences yet. A general rule of thumb, an important top consists of reversal of reversal of reversal so if after the new high, the market keeps swinging up and down like we’re seeing those days then bulls still should be cautious.
About Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow, it’s generally bullish but since TICK closed above 1000 today, so I don’t expect it to be a big up day if not red. Also don’t forget the general Non Farm Payroll day intraday pattern – open high go lower or open low go higher.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER
See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH
See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now. |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | *UP? | |
| XIU.TO | 02/04 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change. | |
| TLT Weekly | ? | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | *ChiOsc is way too high. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 02/09 S | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | ? | Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 02/09 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
