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SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, A LITTLE BULLISH BIASED THOUGH
Still nothing to say. SPY is still inside a Symmetrical Triangle therefore the direction is unclear, a little bullish biased though because Symmetrical Triangle usually means a continuation which in the current case means continue up. A 2 inside bars pattern has been formed which also means indecision. However, as those inside bars act like a depressed spring therefore the breakout on either side would be very powerful, so no matter you’re bull or bear, just don’t get too aggressive now.
By the way, the reason I’m cautious about saying that “the SPY Symmetrical Triangle means continue higher” is because VIX too has formed a Symmetrical Triangle which if means continue higher then SPY should go lower. So again, at the current stage, the direction is not clear, we’d better wait.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT
See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 01/28 S | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | ||
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP? | |
| XIU.TO | *03/09 S | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| TLT | Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change. | |
| TLT Weekly | ? | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | UP | Testing Fib confluences area. |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 02/03 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | ChiOsc is way too high. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | Too far above BB top. |
| XLE | 03/04 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | Too far above MA(200). |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | ? | Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change. |
| IYR | ||
| IYR Weekly | UP | |
| XLB | 02/09 S | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
