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Thursday, March 24, 2011

03/24/2011 Market Recap: 6 vs 6

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10)
Short-term UP *03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight. The short position was stopped out with loss.

SHORT-TERM: BEARS ARE NOT OVER YET

Although a good day for bulls but not strong enough as according to the n vs n rule mentioned yesterday, 6 vs 6, bulls already lost. Unless up really huge tomorrow otherwise by definition this still is a sellable bounce and accordingly the 03/16 low will be revisited eventually.

2

Trading wise, in short-term, I’d buy the very first dip as according to the law of inertia, after a strong push up like we saw today, the very first pullback would mostly fail while the bear’s best bet is three push up to form a Double Top before a meaningful pullback could be possible.

1

In addition, I see two warnings today, may not mean much so info only.

VIX dropped 30%+ in 4 trading days which had only happened 4 times since year 2000. The pullbacks thereafter within 5 days were all big.

3

As mentioned in today’s intraday comment, OEX put call ratio is way too high which is not a good sign because historically OEX option traders are mostly correct.

4

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
  2. March historically weak later in the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly DOWN
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP ChiOsc is way too high.
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 03/23 L
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
Posted by Cobra at 5:59 PM
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