Live Update

Thursday, August 14, 2008

08/13/2008 Market Recap: A Few Good Signs

A few signals show the pullback may have finished today, but they are not completely convincing.

3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily).  The sharp reversal during the trading hours caused the sharp reversal of the stock market too.  On the chart the pattern is a bearish Dark Cloud Cover, and it is testing back the previous support.  Therefore it may likely go further down and thus the probability of market up tomorrow is quite high.

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2.0.0 Volatility Index - NYSE (Daily).  Today it closed a cross and looks like a reversal.  Therefore the market may go up.

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3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily).  Bearish Engulf, the bond will likely dive down which means the stock market may rally.

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Conclusion, tomorrow it might be good to buy dip but the following factors have to be taken into account.

1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily).  Inside bar for two days and the momentum seems very strong, but the breakout direction is unclear.  STO is still overbought, and NAMO on 1.1.B QQQQ and VXN is overbought too.  So I do not think QQQQ will still soar radically.  More likely it may pullback.

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1.1.4 Semiconductor Holders (SMH Daily), this is why I do not believe QQQQ will go up significantly.  SMH has rallied for 8 days but today it closed a black candle, which hints a big pullback.  If SMH go down, COMPQ will have sufficient strength to continue the uptrend.

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My market view keeps the same as yesterday, if QQQQ pulls back further it will be healthy.  If it rallies tomorrow, I will not buy dip because it looks like too bullish to be trustable -- QQQQ is almost going up vertically.

1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Daily), 1.2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Daily).  According to the volume pattern, they are forming Bearish Rising Wedge from my point of view.  No conclusion yet, just have your attention.

5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily).  XLF did not hold at $21, and now the target is the fence below it.  Keep an eye on it tomorrow, if the fence is broken, the bearish rising wedge on 1.0.0 and 1.2.0 will become valid, and you'd better think twice before buying dip.  At least I will wait for one more day.

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Posted by Cobra at 12:57 AM

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