Well, here’s what I’m worried!

Well, here’s what I’m worried, the Rydex Beta Chasing Index is still very high. Yeah, I know, any bearish bias simply doesn’t work those days, so maybe it’s nothing. Trade what you see, not what you believe, that’s at least what I’m doing now, but if bears show some aggressive actions in the coming days I wouldn’t hesitate to join them…

03/31/2011 Market Recap: Pennant

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are *BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/07-04/11 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/04-04/13

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. 03/25 Market Recap: VIX 18% below MA(10) is bearish in 5 days. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop *03/31 L N/A *Beware the winning rate for a trend following system is usually below 50%. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss. Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this model soon. Short-term UP 03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MORE LIKELY A GREEN DAY TOMORROW

Three cents:

1. Although the bullishness in my forum really scares me but I must admit that both statistics and chart pattern are arguing for a green day tomorrow.
2. About Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow, it’s generally bullish and the intraday pattern usually is “opens high goes lower or opens low goes higher” which I’ve been blah blah every month for awhile, so please click this link to see the statistics yourself.
3. Trading wise, the name of the game still is to buy dip.

Why green day tomorrow?

Both Pennant and Ascending Triangle are continuation patterns therefore the breakout is most likely on the upside.

The seasonality about tomorrow below is from Bespoke.

Non Farm Payroll day itself is generally bullish.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
2. Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.

See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	DOWN	NAADV MA(10) is way too high.
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP	TOADV MA(10) is way too high.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP	*Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
GDX & Weekly	03/30 S
USO & Weekly	UP	*Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

03/31/2011 After Bell Quick Summary

The bottom line, the short-term trend is up. I hold partial long position overnight.

Tomorrow is the 1st trading day of April, suppose to be very very bullish as per Stock Trader’s Almanac, Dow up 13 of last 16. The chart  below also shows that we’ve had a bullish month start for quite a time. Personally, I also believe a green day tomorrow is more likely although the start of the day might be a little weak (I’ll be on the bear side if too weak though) judging by how the market closed today.

Demo account for short-term model, $200 max loss allowed per trade. Mechanical trading signal, for fun only.

TICKER	Entry Date	Entry Price	Share	Stop Loss	Exit Date	Exit Price	Profit	Comment
SSO	03/28/2011	$52.02	100	$49.91
LAST							1158.00
SUM							1158.00

03/31/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87

Rydex traders are way too bullish

Here’s the latest Rydex trader’s actions from Sentimentrader, I think retailers are way too bullish. Well, maybe this time, all of us can finally retire earlier?

03/30/2011 Market Recap: More Push Up Ahead?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY? mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/07-04/11 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/04-04/13

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. 03/25 Market Recap: VIX 18% below MA(10) is bearish in 5 days. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Unofficial buy signal trigged, the model could be in buy mode now. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) *Stopped out of short position with loss. No long position entered yet. *Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this model soon. Short-term UP 03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MORE PUSH UP AHEAD

Two cents:

1. May see pullback tomorrow, not sure though. The more certain thing is the push up is not over yet, so trading wise, I’d at least buy the very first pullback.
2. Maintain the forecast mentioned in 03/25 Market Recap that 03/16 low will eventually be tested. For now, I dare not say that the low will be tested before the new high anymore though.

Why more push up ahead? Because the rally today is large enough to invalidate the 3 push up pattern on SPX, so before a little bigger pullback is possible, the previous high (say today’s high, assuming SPX starts to pullback tomorrow) needs to be tested first. Then why a pullback maybe tomorrow? Because QQQ has fulfilled its 3 push up pattern so may pullback tomorrow therefore  could drag down the SPX as well.

Another reason for calling more push up ahead is INDU has higher high again today, so expect SPX to follow soon. By the way, this also is the reason why I dare not say that the 03/16 low will be tested before the new high, because a little bit push up INDU will be at new high and so will SPX.

The chart below is another argument for calling a pullback tomorrow, not a solid one but interesting. Generally, each up swings should get weaker and weaker (as buyers become less and less while sellers become more and more). From the chart below, we can see:

• From 03/16 to 03/21, SPX rose 51 points in 3 days;
• From 03/23 to 03/25, SPX rose 35 points in 3 days;
• 35 / 51 = 0.68;
• From 03/29 to 03/30, SPX rose 26 points in 2 days;
• 26 / 35 = 0.74;

Where 0.74 has already exceeded the previous rate of 0.68, so my guess is, the high might have already been in today, so even SPX keeps up tomorrow, most likely there won’t be a higher high.

As for why maintain the forecast that 03/16 low will eventually be tested, the main reason still is 9 down vs 10 up, bulls lost, therefore by definition this still is a sellable bounce, which in another word is the 03/16 low is not THE BOTTOM.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
2. Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.

See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	DOWN	*NAADV MA(10) is way too high.
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP	TOADV MA(10) is way too high.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	*03/30 S
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

03/30/2011 After Bell Quick Summary

The bottom line, the short-term trend is up. I hold partial long position overnight.

Well, here is the new evil plan, a pullback if any is a buy as there should be one more push up at least. I’ll explain why in tonight’s report.

Demo account for short-term model, $200 max loss allowed per trade. Mechanical trading signal, for fun only.

TICKER	Entry Date	Entry Price	Share	Stop Loss	Exit Date	Exit Price	Profit	Comment
SSO	03/28/2011	$52.02	100	$49.91
SSO	03/25/2011	$52.29	100	$50.97	03/25/2011	N/A	N/A	No guts to take the trade.
SSO	03/24/2011	$51.62	100	$49.91	03/28/2011	$52.39	77.00
SSO	03/23/2011	$50.72	200	$49.43	03/24/2011	$51.69	194.00
SDS	03/23/2011	$22.29	300	$21.58	03/24/2011	$21.50	-237.00
SDS	03/17/2011	$22.83	200	$21.58	03/22/2011	$22.02	-162.00
SDS	03/16/2011	$22.81	200	$21.85	03/16/2011	$23.36	110.00
SDS	03/15/2011	$22.50	200	$21.58	03/16/2011	$22.60	20.00
SDS	03/14/2011	$22.01	200	$21.02	03/15/2011	N/A	N/A	Network problem, didn’t take the trade.
SDS	03/14/2011	$22.08	200	$21.02	03/14/2011	$22.17	18.00
SSO	03/07/2011	$52.17	100	$50.84	03/09/2011	$52.57	40.00
SSO	03/04/2011	$53.01	100	$50.84	03/07/2011	$53.23	22.00
SSO	03/03/2011	$53.33	100	$51.52	03/04/2011	$53.49	16.00
SDS	03/01/2011	$21.37	200	$20.62	03/01/2011	$21.76	78.00
SSO	02/28/2011	$53.09	100	$52.20	03/01/2011	$53.69	60.00
SDS	02/22/2011	$21.05	300	$20.62	03/10/2011	$21.82	231.00
LAST							691.00
SUM							1158.00

03/30/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86

03/29/2011 Market Recap: Higher High Tomorrow?

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY? mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 04/07-04/11 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/04-04/13

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead. 03/25 Market Recap: VIX 18% below MA(10) is bearish in 5 days. My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A *Unofficial buy signal trigged, the model could be in buy mode now. ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) *Primary buy triggered, either cover tomorrow or wait until stopped out. *No long position should be entered yet. *Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this model soon. Short-term *UP 03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE HIGHER HIGH TOMORROW

Five cents:

1. Could see higher high tomorrow. If up huge then the 3 push up pattern I’ve been blah blah recently would become invalid.
2. Before seeing huge up tomorrow, I’ll maintain the forecast mentioned in 03/25 Market Recap that the 03/16 lows will be retested before the new high.
3. Both of my 2  intermediate-term trading models are in buy model now but there’s catch need to explain.
4. Trading wise, the name of the game is still to buy dip.
5. Combining the 3 factors mentioned below, if you’re an aggressive traders then you may want to bet your luck on the downside for the very short-term.
   • VIX 18% below MA(10) mentioned in 03/25 Market Recap. Valid for 5 trading days and today is day 2.
   • Statistics about Bearish Engulfing and Bearish Reversal Day pattern mentioned in 03/28 Market Recap. Valid for 5 trading days and today is day 1.
   • The seasonality mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary. Valid for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

Why higher high likely tomorrow?

Since SPY doesn’t have higher high yet therefore the RSI negative divergence is still missing.

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, so expect SPX to follow as early as tomorrow.

Why still believe the 03/16 lows will be retested? Except the number 5 “cent” mentioned above, because 9 vs 9, bulls lost the momentum battle today. If, however, bulls are able to break above SPX 1332 tomorrow then the rule would no longer apply. As for the validity of applying the n vs n rule, please refer to 03/25 Market Recap.

Since buy signal was triggered on both Non-Stop and SPY ST Model today, so officially (to me) the intermediate-term trend is up now. However, there’re 2 things I’d like your attention:

• As NYSI is not buy so Non-Stop is not officially in buy mode yet. You may want to wait for a few days for the final confirmation.

• The performance of the SPY ST Model this year is terrible. I’ve mentioned in the 03/25 intraday comment that I’d replace it with the Cobra Impulse which as of now I’m still testing. Cobra Impulse already issued long signal on 03/24, while today it requires the stop loss to be tightened and this is the additional reason that I mentioned above that an aggressive trade may want to bet his/her luck on the downside. The winning rate of the Cobra Impulse may not beat the SPY ST Model, but it’ll be very easy to follow. Unlike the SPY ST Model as you’ve experienced recently that at night I said we should have longed intraday while on the next day I said it’s now too late to follow and then on the 3rd day the position got stopped out. Instead, all entries provided by Cobra Impulse will be mentioned the day before it could be triggered.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
2. Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.

See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	UP	TOADV MA(10) is way too high.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	03/23 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.