Live Update

Monday, May 23, 2011

05/23/2011 Market Outlook (Follow-Through Wanted)

SHORT-TERM: CRITICAL TIME, BULLS ARE NOT OVER YET

Three cents:

  • The pullback isn’t over yet but if bears cannot decisively breakdown today’s low, then be careful of bulls counter-strike. In another word, bulls are not over yet.
  • There’re 64% chances a green day tomorrow. The odds are close to random but still have a little little bullish edges.
  • Trading wise, the name of the game is to sell bounce.

Why aren’t bulls over yet? See chart below, if cannot drop much from here then it could be a 3 push down pattern formed therefore we’d see a 2 legged up from here which generally would be larger than the rebound from 05/17 to 05/19. Bears need not to worry for now though as it seems the pullback isn’t over yet, just the question is how much?

SPY60min

Why are 64% chances a green day tomorrow? See chart below, SPY open and close below its BB bottom since 2003 means bullish in the next 1 and 5 days.

SPYBodyOutOfBBBottom

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP *Could be a Double Top in the forming.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN Volume surge after constantly trending down, may pullback.
USO & Weekly DOWN *Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down.
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Disclaimer

The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author’s blog and chartbook is for information purposes only. The chart analysis and the market recap do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading practice or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.

This websites provides third-party websites for your convenience but the author does not endorse, approve, or certify the information on other websites, nor does the author take responsibility for a part or all materials on the third-party websites which are not maintained by the author.