Live Update

Saturday, July 30, 2011

07/29/2011 Market Outlook (Lower low then close the week in green)

SHORT-TERM: LOW WAS IN OR VERY CLOSE, BUT THE REBOUND LIKELY BE ANOTHER SELL OPPORTUNITY

Two cents:

  1. Low was in or very close. However, most likely it’s just a tradable bottom not the low.
  2. Bears have at least one more chance to sell the bounce.

Why was low in or very close?

  • The chart below says, VIX weekly rose 40%+, 76% chances green the next week but also 76% chances there’ll be a lower low first.

VIXWeeklyRose40Percent

  • As mentioned in the Friday’s Trading Signals, Cobra Impulse System detected the low and therefore requested to cover the short position. The chart below shows all the past cases when such a low was detected. Not absolutely the low but should be close enough, shouldn’t it?

PanicLow

NYMO

  • QQQ hollow red bar.

QQQHollowRedBar

Why will bears have at least one more chance to sell the bounce?

Still it’s the law of inertia, SPY down 5 days in a row means selling pressure is high therefore a V shape reversal is rare, at least the low will be revisited sometimes later. Listed in the charts below are all the past cases since year 2000 when SPY down 5 or more consecutive days, should be enough to prove what I said. The revisit of the low can sometimes be higher low but from the charts we can see that more likely it’s going to be a lower low.

SPXDown5Days0
SPXDown5Days1
SPXDown5Days2
SPXDown5Days3
SPXDown5Days4

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: OFFICIALLY TO ME IS IN DOWNTREND

In wait and see mode, no update.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. First trading day in August weak, Dow down 9 of last 13, up 1.1% in 2007 and 1.3% in 2009.
  2. First 9 trading days of August are historically weak.

The below seasonality char about August is from Bespoke.

AugSeasonalityMonthByMonth

The below August day by day seasonality chart is from Sentimentrader.

AugSeasonalityDayByDay

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term DOWN 3 of 6 OVERSOLD
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful.
IWM & Weekly *DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly *DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly *DOWN  
DAX & Weekly *DOWN  
TLT & Weekly *UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly *DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly *DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Friday, July 29, 2011

07/29/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS DOWN, I HOLD NO POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND

SPY down 5 consecutive days, buy at close today sell the next Monday, you got 69% chances since the last 2,000 trading days. And if hold until the very first green day, you’ll have 88% chances. The chart below was drawn on 06/07 Trading Signals but should be good enough for today.

1

Two more TradingMarkets long setups were triggered today, both claimed to have above 80% winning rate.

2

As mentioned in today’s intraday comment, a potential low was detected by Cobra Impulse System, so the short position was covered and a limit buy order 15 cents (SPY) above today’s low was put for bottom fishing. The order is good for 11 trading days. The statistics below should enough prove how good such a bottom fishing setup WAS.

3

Enjoy your weekend!

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=6%; SDS=5%; UPRO=8%;SPXU=8%
Non-Stop 07/22 L N/A  
Cobra Impulse 07/28 S 2*ATR(10) *Close short initiated on 07/28 with gains.
*Limit buy 15 cents (SPY) above 07/29 low. Stop loss 2*ATR(10).
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 07/25/2011 $54.79 50 $51.50 07/28/2011 $51.50 164.50 Speculation play, half positioned.
SSO 07/21/2011 $54.06 100 $50.82 07/21/2011 $54.84 78.00  
SSO 07/19/2011 $52.79 50 $50.82 07/25/2011 $54.57 89.00  
SSO 07/19/2011 $52.79 50 $49.62 07/19/2011 $53.40 30.50  
SDS 07/14/2011 $20.65 300 $19.62 07/14/2011 $20.94 87.00  
SDS 07/13/2011 $20.50 200 $19.27 07/13/2011 $20.63 26.00  
SDS 07/11/2011 $20.37 100 $19.62 07/29/2011 $21.44 53.50  
SDS 07/11/2011 $20.37 100 $19.15 07/11/2011 $20.60 23.00  
SSO 07/08/2011 $54.84 50 $52.10 07/14/2011 $52.10 137.00 Speculation play, half positioned.
SSO 07/07/2011 $55.46 100 $52.69 07/07/2011 $55.76 30.00  
SSO 07/06/2011 $54.22 100 $51.51 07/06/2011 $54.34 12.00  
SSO 07/01/2011 $53.90 100 $51.21 07/01/2011 $54.50 60.00 New stop loss strategy: 2*ATR(10) used.
SSO 06/22/2011 $50.30 50 $52.69 07/11/2011 $53.42 156.00  
LAST   1905.00  
SUM   2248.50  
  • $300 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

07/29/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=254

Thursday, July 28, 2011

07/28/2011 Market Outlook (Almost oversold enough for a good bounce)

SHORT-TERM: ALMOST OVERSOLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD BOUNCE

For Intermediate-term, I prefer to wait one more day to make my next call. For now it doesn’t look good though, especially Cobra Impulse System is in sell mode now (see today’s Trading Signals for details), while, as explained yesterday, Non-Stop is almost in sell mode, so officially to me the intermediate-term trend is down.

For short-term, as mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, underwater bulls better wait for a few days before panic because my two ultimate weapons for watching oversold, T2122 and NYMO, are now very close to oversold, so chances are any losing ground from now on would be recovered eventually.

T2122NYMO

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

See 07/22 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 3 of 6 OVERSOLD
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP NAMO oversold.
IWM & Weekly UP Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
SSEC & Weekly UP Big red bar usually means a start of downtrend, so be careful here. 
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly UP Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
DAX & Weekly UP  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly UP Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

07/28/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS DOWN, I HOLD SHORT POSITION OVERNIGHT

SPY down 4 days in a row, buy at today’s close, sell the next day at close, you got 62% chances since year 2003. Hold until the very first green day though, you have 83% chances. The following chart was drawn on 06/06 Trading Signals, should still apply, I’m in a hurry to leave so no new drawing today. The bottom line, it’s not a good time to be panic now so if you still hold your long position, better wait for a few more days and as usual, I’ll present my witness in tonight’s report. Stay tuned.

2

Two more TradingMarkets long setup triggered today, both claimed to have above 80% winning rate.

1

Cobra Impulse System is officially in sell mode now and yes, a short position was initiated today.

3

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=6%; SDS=5%; UPRO=8%;SPXU=8%
Non-Stop 07/22 L N/A  
Cobra Impulse *07/28 S 2*ATR(10) *Short position initiated on 07/28.
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 07/25/2011 $54.79 50 $51.50 07/28/2011 $51.50 164.50 Speculation play, half positioned.
SSO 07/21/2011 $54.06 100 $50.82 07/21/2011 $54.84 78.00  
SSO 07/19/2011 $52.79 50 $50.82 07/25/2011 $54.57 89.00  
SSO 07/19/2011 $52.79 50 $49.62 07/19/2011 $53.40 30.50  
SDS 07/14/2011 $20.65 300 $19.62 07/14/2011 $20.94 87.00  
SDS 07/13/2011 $20.50 200 $19.27 07/13/2011 $20.63 26.00  
SDS 07/11/2011 $20.37 100 $19.62  
SDS 07/11/2011 $20.37 100 $19.15 07/11/2011 $20.60 23.00  
SSO 07/08/2011 $54.84 50 $52.10 07/14/2011 $52.10 137.00 Speculation play, half positioned.
SSO 07/07/2011 $55.46 100 $52.69 07/07/2011 $55.76 30.00  
SSO 07/06/2011 $54.22 100 $51.51 07/06/2011 $54.34 12.00  
SSO 07/01/2011 $53.90 100 $51.21 07/01/2011 $54.50 60.00 New stop loss strategy: 2*ATR(10) used.
SSO 06/22/2011 $50.30 50 $52.69 07/11/2011 $53.42 156.00  
LAST   1905.00  
SUM   2195.00  
  • $300 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

07/28/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=253

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

07/27/2011 Market Outlook (Rebound maybe but lower close ahead)

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT LOWER CLOSE AHEAD

Today’s market can be represented by 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights:

  • A little oversold in the short-term (Remember all the indicators I used to watch the short-term overbought/oversold are no ordinary indicators?), so chances are we may see a rebound as early as tomorrow.
  • Intermediate-term doesn’t look good, or more precisely, rebound, if any, is sell. Although the primary sell signal of Non-Stop is not sell yet but the other 3 major signals, NYSI, BPSPX and BPNDX, are all on the sell side now which usually means unpleasant ahead. For example, the recent 2 times those 3 signals happened before the primary sell signal was on 01/25/2010 and 05/03/2010, especially the 05/03/2010 case, I hope you still remember the 05/06 crash, don’t you?

SignalWatchNonStop

The charts below mostly argue for a rebound tomorrow (could be huge) but all are saying that the selling is not over yet. All charts should be clear enough, so no more words needed. (I believe most of you here are for my charts not my beautiful Chinese English, right? So maybe it’s a good idea that I simply present charts and say less. Let me know if you don’t like this style, thanks.)

NYADVTICKMA3
SPX3ConsecutiveDownDaysINDULeadsMarket

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

See 07/22 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 3 of 6 *OVERSOLD
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP *NAMO oversold.
IWM & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
SSEC & Weekly UP Big red bar usually means a start of downtrend, so be careful here. 
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
DAX & Weekly UP  
TLT & Weekly DOWN  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly UP  
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly UP *Beware of 1-2-3 Trend Change.
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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