Live Update

Thursday, June 30, 2011

06/30/2011 Market Outlook (The Very First VIX Touch)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

Two cents:

  1. Most likely today’s high is not the high, so accordingly the very first pullback should be a buy.
  2. Either red tomorrow or the short-term top is very close.

Why most likely is today’s high not the high? Still the same reason I mentioned yesterday, a forward accelerating car cannot be stopped without slowing down first. No RSI negative divergence means the car is still accelerating forward.

NoRSIND

Why is red tomorrow or short-term top very close? See chart below, because this is the very first time VIX touched its BB bottom (Yesterday’s touch was a wrong data).

VIXFirstTouch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN *NAMO and NAADV MA(10) overbought.
IWM & Weekly DOWN
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed. 
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP *Double Top, target $20.86.
GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52. 
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag? 
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

06/30/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

Tomorrow is the 1st trading of a new month, seasonality is always bullish. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first trading day in July, Dow up 18 of last 21.

1

Those who follow Non-Stop model, since both BPSPX and BPNDX are buy yesterday (due to CBOE data delay, I cannot give signals in yesterday’s AH, the next time I’d remind you in the Market Outlook instead of in the Trading Signals), so it’s time to cover short and initiate a long position. You can of course wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw as the model has only 50% winning rate which is very typical of a trend following system that relies on a long lasting trend to win in the long run.

3 

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, it’s time to set your stop loss to breakeven (a little above your entry price).

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 5 *BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term   5 of 6 NEUTRAL  
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop *06/30 L N/A *Close short opened on 05/10 with gains, long on 06/30.
Cobra Impulse 06/29 L *Breakeven *Adjust stop loss.

DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL:

TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 06/30/2011 $52.76 100 $50.73 06/30/2011 $52.96 20.00  
SDS 06/23/2011 $22.45 100 $21.34 06/29/2011 $21.14 -131.00 Sharp gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 06/22/2011 $50.30 50 *$50.73  
SSO 06/21/2011 $50.35 100 $48.06 06/21/2011 $51.10 75.00  
SDS 06/20/2011 $22.06 100 $21.54 06/21/2011 $21.46 -60.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/16/2011 $22.37 200 $21.54 06/16/2011 $22.65 56.00  
SDS 06/15/2011 $22.23 100 $21.54 06/20/2011 $22.29 6.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SSO 06/14/2011 $50.23 100 $48.64 06/14/2011 $50.45 22.00  
SDS 06/13/2011 $22.40 100 $21.54 06/15/2011 $22.58 18.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/09/2011 $21.80 100 $21.11 06/10/2011 $22.23 43.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/08/2011 $22.02 200 $21.11 06/08/2011 $22.18 32.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 100 $21.11 06/13/2011 $22.36 79.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 200 $20.85 06/06/2011 $21.93 72.00  
SDS 06/01/2011 $20.61 100 $20.05 06/03/2011 $21.53 92.00  
SSO 05/27/2011 $53.70 100 $52.13 06/02/2011 $52.13 -157.00 Mistakenly closed the 05/26 long, bought back.
SDS 05/25/2011 $20.92 200 $20.05 06/02/2011 $21.15 46.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
LAST   1692.00  
SUM   1905.00  
  • $200 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance.
  • The short-term model is not a part of Cobra Impulse System.

06/30/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=228

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

06/29/2011 Market Outlook (Higher High Ahead)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

Three cents:

  1. Could see red tomorrow.
  2. Pullback, if any, is buy, as most likely today’s high is not the high.
  3. Still cannot exclude the Bear Flag case on SPX daily chart. A pullback if any would provide enough info to identify whether this merely is a pullback or something more.

Firstly let’s take a look at the evil plan mentioned yesterday. Now the Symmetrical Triangle case can be excluded but it seems Bear Flag still OK, so strictly speaking, today’s market action still cannot confirm whether the correction is over.

BearFlag

The chart below illustrated what I’ll watch the next. The thick green line is the key, breakdown below it then it’s price overlap so the last 3 days’ rally is merely a rebound therefore destined to fail. On the other hand, if the pullback stops above the green line or even there’s no pullback at all, then most likely more up ahead. This is based on the Elliott Wave theory, impulse wave up cannot overlap while if overlap, then it’s a corrective wave therefore destined to fail. I know some of you don’t like Elliott Wave. Well, don’t be, Elliott Wave is actually based on the price pattern, if you’ve watched my intra-day comments then you’d know that patterns are very effective in predicting the market movements, so as long as you understand the essences behind the Elliott Wave, the theory can be very useful.

SPY60min

I know, after seeing the chart above, some may ask, why I’m sure after a pullback there’ll be one more push up? The chart below explains why: RSI negative divergence is needed. What’s the theory behind this RSI phenomenon? Well, it’s the law of inertia, a forward accelerating car cannot be reversed before slowing it down first. RSI measures acceleration not the speed itself, so acceleration must be slowed first before speed itself can be slowed.

HigherHighAhead

Then why expect a red tomorrow? I’ve mentioned the reasons in 06/28 Market Outlook, seasonality bearish tomorrow, plus NYADV too high means either red today or tomorrow. Because today is green so most likely tomorrow will be red.

NYADVTooHigh

One unique thing I’d like your attention today is the very negative money flow. Although officially, in today’s Trading Signals, both intermediate-term and short-term are up but this up is not without a doubt: The chart below compared the money flow in the recent 3 days rally to the past similar cases, clearly we can see, although the bars we have are much more pretty than before but unlike the past, block trades are selling hard into the strength which I don’t think is a good sign. Well, maybe it’s nothing, but let’s just remember this here, in a few days we’d know whether it does mean something or not.

MoneyFlow

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed. 
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52. 
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag? 
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Very Negative Money Flow

This belongs to the night discussion but I’m sure some of you would remind me of this. Yes, I’m fully aware of it. It is very unusual, but the point is still we need see tomorrow.

1

06/29/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

Good follow through today, now both short-term and intermediate-term are up, at least the very first dip is buy.

For tomorrow, as discussed in the last night’s report, odds favor a red day.

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, a long position should be initiated today. The setup had 81% winning rate over the past 2000 trading days. If you missed the entry today, as long as the system still holds the position and you have a better entry, you can enter at any time. Besides, I’ll from now on mention 2nd/3rd/4th/… entries after the initial entry, most likely they’re worse entries but still better than missing the whole trend. You can use all the following entries to pyramid your position as well.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY    
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term   5 of 6 NEUTRAL  
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop 05/10 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
Cobra Impulse *06/29 L 1.7*ATR(10) *Long position initiated on 06/29.

DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL:

TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SDS 06/23/2011 $22.45 100 $21.34 06/29/2011 $21.14 -131.00 Sharp gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 06/22/2011 $50.30 50 $48.02  
SSO 06/21/2011 $50.35 100 $48.06 06/21/2011 $51.10 75.00  
SDS 06/20/2011 $22.06 100 $21.54 06/21/2011 $21.46 -60.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/16/2011 $22.37 200 $21.54 06/16/2011 $22.65 56.00  
SDS 06/15/2011 $22.23 100 $21.54 06/20/2011 $22.29 6.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SSO 06/14/2011 $50.23 100 $48.64 06/14/2011 $50.45 22.00  
SDS 06/13/2011 $22.40 100 $21.54 06/15/2011 $22.58 18.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/09/2011 $21.80 100 $21.11 06/10/2011 $22.23 43.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/08/2011 $22.02 200 $21.11 06/08/2011 $22.18 32.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 100 $21.11 06/13/2011 $22.36 79.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 200 $20.85 06/06/2011 $21.93 72.00  
SDS 06/01/2011 $20.61 100 $20.05 06/03/2011 $21.53 92.00  
SSO 05/27/2011 $53.70 100 $52.13 06/02/2011 $52.13 -157.00 Mistakenly closed the 05/26 long, bought back.
SDS 05/25/2011 $20.92 200 $20.05 06/02/2011 $21.15 46.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
LAST   1692.00  
SUM   1885.00  
  • $200 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance.
  • The short-term model is not a part of Cobra Impulse System.

06/29/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=227

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

06/28/2011 Market Outlook (So far goes as planned)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK WITHIN 2 DAYS

So far the market goes exactly as I planned in 06/24 Market Outlook. See chart below, even I don’t need change a single lines drawn on that day. So tomorrow could be the branch point:

  1. Drop directly then it could be the Symmetrical Triangle case.
  2. Small rise to higher high then it could be the Bear Flag case.
  3. Another huge up day like today, then no argue, say goodbye to bears.

EvilPlan

For now, case 1 or 2 have a little bit higher odds. The arguments are supported by many charts I saw today which if the intermediate-term trend still remains down then a pullback should start as early as tomorrow. While no pullback instead a huge up tomorrow, then it’d imply a change in character, something indeed is different now, and this is why I said above, if up huge tomorrow, we’d better say goodbye to bears. The chart below is the most convincing one among all the charts I saw today – NYADV is way too high, so don’t expect a big up day tomorrow if not red. By the way, this chart is also the reason I said in today’s Trading Signals that if up again tomorrow, short at close might have higher odds. Besides there’s an additional reason as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac: Last day of Q2 bearish for Dow, down 14 of last 19 but bullish for Nasdaq, up 12 of 18, although down 6 of last 7.

NYADVTooHigh

I don’t see UUP daily chart below as bearish. The reason I mention it today is that it looks like the successful austerity vote would be interpreted as good for the dollar, therefore chances are high we’d see sell on news on the stock market. Besides, the pullback in gold could also imply a strong dollar ahead.

UUPDailyGLDDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MORE SELLING AHEAD

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THURSDAY BULLISH FRIDAY

See 06/24 Market Outlook for more details. Also, see 06/24 Trading Signals for seasonality surrounding the Independence Day.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 2 huge consecutive up days usually mean SSEC was bottomed. 
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP Double Top, target $142.52. 
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN Complex Head and Shoulders Top, target $64.35.
XLF & Weekly DOWN Bear Flag? 
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

06/28/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD BOTH LONG AND SHORT (TRAPPED) OVERNIGHT

Let’s see whether the setup below still works or not this time. I have no confidence in it but it seems shorting at tomorrow’s close might have a little edge which I’ll explain in tonight’s report.

1

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, tomorrow is the key, either short or long, see table below for detailed instructions.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS: 

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 BUY    
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term   6 of 6 NEUTRAL  
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
Non-Stop 05/10 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
Cobra Impulse *Long if break above 06/28 high and close in green tomorrow. 
*Short if break below 06/28 low and close in red tomorrow.
*The stop loss for long is 1.7*ATR(10), for short is 2.0*ATR(10).

DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL:

TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SDS 06/23/2011 $22.45 100 $21.34 Trend unclear, half positioned.
SSO 06/22/2011 $50.30 50 $48.02 Sharp gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 06/21/2011 $50.35 100 $48.06 06/21/2011 $51.10 75.00  
SDS 06/20/2011 $22.06 100 $21.54 06/21/2011 $21.46 -60.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/16/2011 $22.37 200 $21.54 06/16/2011 $22.65 56.00  
SDS 06/15/2011 $22.23 100 $21.54 06/20/2011 $22.29 6.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SSO 06/14/2011 $50.23 100 $48.64 06/14/2011 $50.45 22.00  
SDS 06/13/2011 $22.40 100 $21.54 06/15/2011 $22.58 18.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/09/2011 $21.80 100 $21.11 06/10/2011 $22.23 43.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
SDS 06/08/2011 $22.02 200 $21.11 06/08/2011 $22.18 32.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 100 $21.11 06/13/2011 $22.36 79.00  
SDS 06/06/2011 $21.57 200 $20.85 06/06/2011 $21.93 72.00  
SDS 06/01/2011 $20.61 100 $20.05 06/03/2011 $21.53 92.00  
SSO 05/27/2011 $53.70 100 $52.13 06/02/2011 $52.13 -157.00 Mistakenly closed the 05/26 long, bought back.
SDS 05/25/2011 $20.92 200 $20.05 06/02/2011 $21.15 46.00 Not fully positioned, may add on the way up.
LAST   1692.00  
SUM   2016.00  
  • $200 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance.
  • The short-term model is not a part of Cobra Impulse System.

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