Live Update

Friday, September 30, 2011

09/30/2011 Trading Signals

SHORT-TERM MODEL THINKS THE TREND IS DOWN, HOLDING LONG (TRAPPED) AND SHORT OVER THE WEEKEND

First of all, take a little time to poll here. I plan to do this on regular basis so that we’ll have our own sentiment poll.

The bottom line, no good for bulls for the following few weeks as mentioned in the last night report if no huge up today. I’ll present my witness in the weekend report, so stay tuned. That’s for a little bit longer time frame though, the short-term is still hard to say because, see below, 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days usually means a huge rebound and I’m sure you all remember how the market rebounded recently, really really powerful, right? So bears no champagne please, the fighting is not over yet.

Bullish biased toward the next Monday for 2 reasons:

Two Major Distribution Day within 5 days had led to a rebound starting from next trading day, 12 out of 17 (71%) times and most likely the rebound won’t be small.

3

The day after a Major Distribution Day has 64% chances to close in green.

1

Cobra Impulse System will try to sell short again the next Monday. See table below for more details. I know that “close in red or green” kind of confirmation really makes the trade difficult. I’ll find time to see if there’s any better solution for this.

2

Enjoy your weekend!

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=12%; SDS=11%; UPRO=19%;SPXU=17%
Non-Stop 09/23 S N/A  
Cobra Impulse 09/26 L  Breakeven *Short if below 09/30 low and close in red next Monday. Stop loss = 2*ATR(10).
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SDS 09/30/2011 $25.13 100 $22.37  
SDS 09/29/2011 $24.47 100 $21.78 09/30/2011 $24.66 19.00  
SDS 09/29/2011 $24.47 100 $21.78 09/29/2011 $24.97 50.00  
SSO 09/29/2011 $40.89 50 $35.98 Only half as another buy stop not triggered.
SDS 09/28/2011 $24.32 200 $21.64 09/28/2011 $24.69 74.00  
SSO 09/27/2011 $41.84 100 $37.24 09/27/2011 $42.03 19.00 It’s average sell price.
SDS 09/23/2011 $25.44 100 $22.90 09/27/2011 $22.90 254.00 New strategy, half positioned for risk $500 max.
SSO 09/20/2011 $43.68 50 $39.31 09/20/2011 $44.06 19.00  
SSO 09/15/2011 $43.00 50 $38.27 09/15/2011 $43.53 26.50  
SSO 09/14/2011 $41.45 50 $39.31 09/22/2011 $38.09 -168.00  Gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 09/13/2011 $40.51 50 $35.65 09/13/2011 $40.88 18.50  
SDS 09/13/2011 $24.03 100 $21.39 09/22/2011 $26.25   222.00  
SDS 09/02/2011 $24.35 100 $21.43 09/13/2011 $23.48 3.00  
SDS 09/01/2011 $22.94 100 $19.96 09/01/2011 $23.01 7.00  
SSO 08/30/2011 $44.09 50 $38.69 09/12/2011 $38.69 -270.00 Gap down, manual stop loss used.
LAST   2935.00  
SUM   2701.00  
  • $500 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

09/30/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=314

Thursday, September 29, 2011

09/29/2011 Market Outlook (The 3rd time is the charm)

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

No conclusion today, let’s see tomorrow.

The chart below should explain what I saw. Sharp rebound again on the 3rd touch of the same line, the question is: Will the 3rd time be the charm? How the market moves in the follow several trading days will probably give us some clue about bull or bear to be.

One thing I’d like you to know ahead is, if cannot up huge tomorrow, then starting from the next week, bears would have one extra insurance, well, statistically. I’ll present my witness in the weekend report. In summary, 75% chances the next week will drop below today’s low and the next few weeks and even longer time would be bears safe zone. Again, pay attention to the pre-condition which is no huge up tomorrow, such as another 20 points gap up and then another 30 points up thereafter, something like that. Frankly, I’m really scared by bulls. If indeed up huge tomorrow, then bears safe zone will have to wait until the next next week, in which case, I’ll present my witness the next next week. All in all, my evil intension is to make sure you always want to come back to read my report. LOL.

3rdTimeCharm

Chart pattern wise, it’s hard to say today’s black bar means top or bottom, so again, need see tomorrow.

SPYDaily

If you really really want my wild-est-est-est guess about tomorrow, I’d say, a little little little little bearish biased. There’re 2 reasons, except that according Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13. Neither of those 2 reasons are solid, so that’s why I say a little little little little bearish biased:

Three reversal like bars on the IBM daily chart, so IBM could be topped. The stock weights 12.20% in INDU, so if this guy indeed drops, then INDU won’t be good.

IBMDaily

Unlike SPY black bars which looks ambiguous, the 2 hollow red bars on UUP daily chart looks like a bottom of some kind, so if the dollar up, then the overall stock market won’t be good.

UUPDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

09/29/2011 Trading Signals

SHORT-TERM MODEL THINKS THE TREND IS DOWN BUT UNCONFIRMED, HOLDING BOTH TRAPPED LONG AND SHORT OVERNIGHT

I have no idea about tomorrow, the feeling is not bearish though.

So far this week, we had 4 gap up open in a row and 3 of them are almost 20 SPX points gap. The question is, will SPX gaps up again tomorrow morning with another 20 points? I don’t know. I just know:

  1. For the past 2 years, all bulls need are imagination and I’ve seen 6 consecutive up gaps (from 12/18/2009 to 12/28/2009), so really 4 consecutive up gaps really are nothing.
  2. And we had 3 consecutive 16+ points SPX gap up from 03/17 /2011 to 03/21/2011, so again the 4th 20 SPX points gap up tomorrow is not entirely impossible.

Well, hope you’ve got my sarcasm despite my beautiful Chenglish. Put all the emotional stuff aside, despite I’m not yet ready to give up the forecast that the Aug 9 lows will be revisited but if the market really wants to go up from here, then so be it, I won’t argue a single word (well, I mean aloud, I would still be murmuring…).

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, the short setup not confirmed and no longer valid and the long position got stopped out today. I think I’ve made it very clear it’s up to you to decide when to take partial profits so don’t blame me for keep getting stopped out… LOL.

1

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=12%; SDS=11%; UPRO=18%;SPXU=17%
Non-Stop 09/23 S N/A  
Cobra Impulse 09/26 L  Breakeven *Stopped out of long position on 09/29 flat.
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SDS 09/29/2011 $24.47 100 $21.78  
SDS 09/29/2011 $24.47 100 $21.78 09/29/2011 $24.97 50.00  
SSO 09/29/2011 $40.89 50 $35.98 Only half as another buy stop not triggered.
SDS 09/28/2011 $24.32 200 $21.64 09/28/2011 $24.69 74.00  
SSO 09/27/2011 $41.84 100 $37.24 09/27/2011 $42.03 19.00 It’s average sell price.
SDS 09/23/2011 $25.44 100 $22.90 09/27/2011 $22.90 254.00 New strategy, half positioned for risk $500 max.
SSO 09/20/2011 $43.68 50 $39.31 09/20/2011 $44.06 19.00  
SSO 09/15/2011 $43.00 50 $38.27 09/15/2011 $43.53 26.50  
SSO 09/14/2011 $41.45 50 $39.31 09/22/2011 $38.09 -168.00  Gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 09/13/2011 $40.51 50 $35.65 09/13/2011 $40.88 18.50  
SDS 09/13/2011 $24.03 100 $21.39 09/22/2011 $26.25   222.00  
SDS 09/02/2011 $24.35 100 $21.43 09/13/2011 $23.48 3.00  
SDS 09/01/2011 $22.94 100 $19.96 09/01/2011 $23.01 7.00  
SSO 08/30/2011 $44.09 50 $38.69 09/12/2011 $38.69 -270.00 Gap down, manual stop loss used.
LAST   2935.00  
SUM   2682.00  
  • $500 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

09/29/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=308

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

09/28/2011 Market Outlook (Lower low ahead but a tradable bottom may be close)

SHORT-TERM: MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

I see lots of extremes today, the easiest conclusion is most likely more lower low ahead (Please pay attention, when I say lower low, I mean lower than today’s low as the conclusion is drawn purely based on the chart. If I mean lower than Aug 9 lows, I’d say it clearly – break below Aug 9 lows. So such lower low calls have been correct for the past weeks and so did the higher high calls). Combining with all the blah blah mentioned in 09/23 Market Outlook and the statistics mentioned in 09/26 Market Outlook so chances are pretty high that the low wasn’t in yet. The good news is that the low might be very close, at least it’s a tradable bottom.

Let’s talk about good news first.

ISEE Index made a 52-week low today, closed at 53. From the chart below, highlighted in red, although it basically says more lower low ahead but the good news is 100% chances a green day tomorrow. Noted that the sample size is too small to make a solid conclusion though, only 6 out of 6.

ISEEIndex

CPC > 1.4, also argues for a lower low ahead, just it looks like at least a tradable bottom is very close whenever CPC reads above 1.4.

CPC

Listed below are all the other extremes I saw today, take a look, all are arguing for a lower low ahead.

TRIN
CPCI
MDD

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

09/28/2011 Trading Signals

SHORT-TERM MODEL THINKS THE TREND IS DOWN BUT UNCONFIRMED, HOLDING NO POSITION OVERNIGHT

The bottom line, I see good chances of a green day tomorrow but more likely today’s low is not the low, will present my witness in tonight’s report, so stay tuned. The samples are just 6 which is very low though, so it’s not a solid conclusion.

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, a breakdown below today’s low and close in red tomorrow would be a short. See table below for more details.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=12%; SDS=11%; UPRO=18%;SPXU=16%
Non-Stop 09/23 S N/A  
Cobra Impulse 09/26 L  Breakeven *Short if below 09/28 low and close in red tomorrow. Stop loss = 2*ATR(10).
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SDS 09/28/2011 $24.32 200 $21.64 09/28/2011 $24.69 74.00  
SSO 09/27/2011 $41.84 100 $37.24 09/27/2011 $42.03 19.00 It’s average sell price.
SDS 09/23/2011 $25.44 100 $22.90 09/27/2011 $22.90 254.00 New strategy, half positioned for risk $500 max.
SSO 09/20/2011 $43.68 50 $39.31 09/20/2011 $44.06 19.00  
SSO 09/15/2011 $43.00 50 $38.27 09/15/2011 $43.53 26.50  
SSO 09/14/2011 $41.45 50 $39.31 09/22/2011 $38.09 -168.00  Gap down, manual stop loss used.
SSO 09/13/2011 $40.51 50 $35.65 09/13/2011 $40.88 18.50  
SDS 09/13/2011 $24.03 100 $21.39 09/22/2011 $26.25   222.00  
SDS 09/02/2011 $24.35 100 $21.43 09/13/2011 $23.48 3.00  
SDS 09/01/2011 $22.94 100 $19.96 09/01/2011 $23.01 7.00  
SSO 08/30/2011 $44.09 50 $38.69 09/12/2011 $38.69 -270.00 Gap down, manual stop loss used.
LAST   2935.00  
SUM   2632.00  
  • $500 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

09/28/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=307&p=28700#p28700

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

09/27/2011 Market Outlook (Filled Black Bar)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND BUT MORE LIKELY THE LOW WASN’T IN YET

As mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, I cannot exclude the possibility that the high was in today. That said, it’s not prudent to call so merely because of a filled black bar and a hollow red bar, so need see tomorrow. If however, another filled black bar or hollow red bar or Doji, then bulls really need to be careful because 2 reversal like bars in a row are much more reliable. The charts below should be clear enough why I cannot exclude the possibility that the high was in, especially the subtle divergence between SPX and VIX.

SPYDaily
VIXDaily

Except the reversal like bars mentioned above, we had a 2%+ up yesterday and as high as 3%+ today, but both days saw very negative Money Flows which is suspicious. I didn’t mean that because of the negative money flows so the market would drop immediately but certainly we should pay attention here.

MoneyFlow

I’m sure some would ask, since today’s rebound was the strongest where c > a and c > b, so does it prove that the trend has been changed to up from down? All I can say are this is the very first step, certainly a good sign, but there’s still a long way to go. The next, we may want to see whether bears could prove themselves, so again, let’s wait and see.

SPXEvilPlan

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, last day of Q3, Dow down 9 of last 13, massive 4.7% rally in 2008.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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