Live Update

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

08/31/2011 Market Outlook (Key Day Tomorrow)

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Key day tomorrow, the pullback, if any, shouldn’t be big otherwise it’s clearly price overlapping which only proves what we had so far is just a ZigZag rebound instead of an impulse wave up. I don’t have any solid evidences to talk you into believing whether it’s a huge up or huge down tomorrow, so will have to wait to see tomorrow. So far the evidences I’ve collected are not very bull friendly, chances for a pullback tomorrow is a little bit higher.

SPYEvilPlan

The chart below is my wild guess. For 2 days in a row, the intraday pullback was bought, if however, another intraday pullback tomorrow, then better don’t expect it to be bought again because the 3rd time is the charm.

3PushUp

There’re 3 reasons supporting my above guess. They’re far from 100% guaranteeing the above guess but are undeniably enough for me to make such a guess.

  • NYMO cannot go up forever and when the pullback indeed starts, it won’t be small.

NYMO

  • OEX Put Call Ratio surge, from the chart below, if such a surge happened after a few days upswing (red lines), most likely it would mean at least a short-term pullback.

OEXPC

  • Two reversal like bars on VIX daily chart may imply that VIX is about to reverse up.

VIX

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
  • First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 5 of 6 *NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN *1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought.
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

08/31/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

One TradingMarkets short setup was triggered today, it had only 68% chances though.

 1

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, it’s time to set your stop loss to breakeven.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=11%; SDS=13%; UPRO=17%;SPXU=20%
Non-Stop 08/25 L N/A Long is risky when long term signals are on the sell side.
Cobra Impulse 08/30 L *Breakeven *Adjust stop loss.
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 08/30/2011 $44.09 50 $38.80  
SSO 08/29/2011 $42.90 50 $37.75 08/29/2011 $43.66 38.00  
SDS 08/19/2011 $26.70 100 $23.17 08/29/2011 $23.17 -353.00 Hold until the 1st failure, not because it’s safe.
SDS 08/18/2011 $25.52 100 $22.46 08/19/2011 $26.81 129.00  
SSO 08/17/2011 $42.60 50 $37.75 08/30/2011 $44.42 91.00 Not a new setup, just a buyback of 08/16 longs.
SSO 08/16/2011 $42.82 50 $35.54 08/17/2011 $43.40 29.00  
SSO 08/15/2011 $42.86 50 $35.14 08/15/2011 $43.26 20.00  
SSO 08/11/2011 $40.16 50 $32.93 08/11/2011 $41.53 68.50 Position too small to split, could hold overnight.
SDS 08/08/2011 $25.94 100 $23.61 08/08/2011 $26.58 64.00 Had to leave earlier today so sold too soon.
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/09/2011 $28.35 522.00  
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/04/2011 $24.00 87.00  
LAST   2248.50  
SUM   2935.00  
  • $300 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

08/31/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=282

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

08/30/2011 Market Outlook (Overbought)

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK TOMORROW

The market is overbought so could see pullback tomorrow. From the VIX chart below there’re some chances the top was in, just a single evidence is far from enough to draw any solid conclusion so I need see the next few days.

VIX

Three charts below are arguing for a red tomorrow, among them T2122 and NYMO are my ultimate weapons for watching overbought/oversold, should be pretty reliable.

T2122NYMOTICKMA3

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
  • First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 3 of 6 *OVERBOUGHT
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

08/30/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

I think chances are high we’ll see a red day tomorrow. I’ll present my witnesses in tonight’s report, stay tuned.

Cobra Impulse System initiated a long position today, see table below for more details.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=12%; SDS=13%; UPRO=17%;SPXU=21%
Non-Stop 08/25 L N/A Long is risky when long term signals are on the sell side.
Cobra Impulse 08/30 L 1.7*ATR(10) *Long position initiated on 08/30.
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 08/30/2011 $44.09 50 $38.80  
SSO 08/29/2011 $42.90 50 $37.75 08/29/2011 $43.66 38.00  
SDS 08/19/2011 $26.70 100 $23.17 08/29/2011 $23.17 -353.00 Hold until the 1st failure, not because it’s safe.
SDS 08/18/2011 $25.52 100 $22.46 08/19/2011 $26.81 129.00  
SSO 08/17/2011 $42.60 50 $37.75 08/30/2011 $44.42 91.00 Not a new setup, just a buyback of 08/16 longs.
SSO 08/16/2011 $42.82 50 $35.54 08/17/2011 $43.40 29.00  
SSO 08/15/2011 $42.86 50 $35.14 08/15/2011 $43.26 20.00  
SSO 08/11/2011 $40.16 50 $32.93 08/11/2011 $41.53 68.50 Position too small to split, could hold overnight.
SDS 08/08/2011 $25.94 100 $23.61 08/08/2011 $26.58 64.00 Had to leave earlier today so sold too soon.
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/09/2011 $28.35 522.00  
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/04/2011 $24.00 87.00  
LAST   2248.50  
SUM   2935.00  
  • $300 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

08/30/2011 Intraday Comment Thread

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=281

Monday, August 29, 2011

08/29/2011 Market Outlook (Could pullback tomorrow but higher high ahead)

SHORT-TERM: COULD PULLBACK TOMORROW, BUT HIGHER HIGH AHEAD

The market has chosen to go Bear Flag or Rising Wedge, so let’s see if it could decisively breakout the green line in the chart below.

SPYEvilPlan

Two conclusions:

  1. Most likely red tomorrow.
  2. More up ahead especially if red tomorrow without higher high first.

The chart below should prove why most likely a red tomorrow: NYMO is way too high, there’s only 1 exception in the chart the next day was green.

NYMO

Tow charts below are arguing more up ahead. They basically are the law of inertia, a strong push up like we had in the past 2 days seldom fail right away.

HHGuaranteed2MADWithin5Days

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
  • First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

  • N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term UP 4 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken.
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

08/29/2011 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM TREND IS UP, I HOLD LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

The bottom line, more up ahead but bulls need show more strength to prove that a new bull market has started which till now I’m still remain skeptical.

Two exceptions in a row but the odds are still high when TICK closes above 1,000, unlikely big up day the next day if not red. Plus don’t forget the seasonality is bearish for tomorrow as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.

1

Those who follow Cobra Impulse System, break above today’s high and close in green tomorrow is long. See table below for more details.

2

MECHANICAL TRADING SIGNALS
SPY SYSTEM ENTRY STOP LOSS Current 2*ATR(10) value: SSO=12%; SDS=14%; UPRO=18%;SPXU=22%
Non-Stop 08/25 L N/A Long is risky when long term signals are on the sell side.
Cobra Impulse *Long if break 08/29 high and close green tomorrow. Stop loss is 1.7*ATR(10).
DEMO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM MODEL (Attention: This is not part of Cobra Impulse System)
TICKER Entry Date Entry Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Profit Comment
SSO 08/29/2011 $42.90 50 $37.75 08/29/2011 $43.66 38.00  
SDS 08/19/2011 $26.70 100 $23.17 08/29/2011 $23.17 -353.00 Hold until the 1st failure, not because it’s safe.
SDS 08/18/2011 $25.52 100 $22.46 08/19/2011 $26.81 129.00  
SSO 08/17/2011 $42.60 50 *$37.75 Not a new setup, just a buyback of 08/16 longs.
SSO 08/16/2011 $42.82 50 $35.54 08/17/2011 $43.40 29.00  
SSO 08/15/2011 $42.86 50 $35.14 08/15/2011 $43.26 20.00  
SSO 08/11/2011 $40.16 50 $32.93 08/11/2011 $41.53 68.50 Position too small to split, could hold overnight.
SDS 08/08/2011 $25.94 100 $23.61 08/08/2011 $26.58 64.00 Had to leave earlier today so sold too soon.
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/09/2011 $28.35 522.00  
SDS 08/04/2011 $23.13 100 $21.51 08/04/2011 $24.00 87.00  
LAST   2248.50  
SUM   2844.00  
  • $300 max loss allowed per trade. For fun only.
  • LAST = Year to the last month balance. SUM = Year to date realized gains/losses.

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