07/26/2011 Market Outlook (IDNU Leads Market?)

SHORT-TERM: THERE’RE SOME CHANCES THE HIGH WAS IN

Nothing to say today, all eyes are on debt ceiling deal, so really hard to see through the future. Purely from TA aspect, I think I’ve collected enough evidences arguing for at least a short-term pullback. As for the pullback target, if only SPX breakdown below its 07/20 low, I’d call my forecast successful. The chart below, 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market also argues that the 07/20 low will be broken.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

See 07/01 Market Outlook and 07/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FRIDAY BUT BULLISH WHOLE WEEK

See 07/22 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.  Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
• 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/20 Market Outlook: Multiple evidences arguing for more pullbacks ahead. Also 2 more evidences in 07/25 Market Outlook.
• 07/22 Market Outlook: Bearish on AAPL, therefore QQQ as well.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP   SSEC & Weekly UP Big red bar usually means a start of downtrend, so be careful here.  EEM & Weekly UP *Hollow red + Solid Black, 2 reversal bars in a row, so pullback? XIU & Weekly UP DAX & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly DOWN   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly UP   XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN IYR & Weekly UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful. XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.