Summary:
A Head and Shoulders Bottom could be formed.
Bond Stock Ratio gives a long-term buy signal.
Intermediate-term still has some bearish puzzles.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Down | Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend. | |
| Intermediate | Up | Overbought | |
| Short-term | Up | Overbought |
The stock market had a “convincing breakout” today, which to me means without a magnifier, I can clear see a new high. The achievement:
1. 1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), a possible Head and Shoulders Bottom. Well, the right shoulder might be too little but if the right shoulder is “too standard” then people might say it’s too obvious to play out.
2. 7.3.0 SPX Long-term Trading Signals, the Bond Stock Ratio in the middle has triggered a buy signal and also my formal long-term signal above seems about to trigger a buy very soon.
So the conclusion is long-term looks bullish now. Well, if it really is so? I’m not sure, let’s wait for a few days before come into conclusion because on chart 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, there’re some bearish puzzles: the NYADV and NYUPV negative divergence, the VIX:VXV sell signal and various negative divergences. As for Broading Top widely discussed, I’ve put some statistics on the chart, it doesn’t necessarily mean a top.
Short-term, I still expect a pullback. Except for the reason mentioned in After Bell Quick Summary, the Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, almost historical new high now.
Also, 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), the US$ could rebound which usually means a pullback for the stock market.
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, just take a look, the ratio is way too high, not a good sign.
