I don’t see anything special other than overbought. Today’s big green bar after a series of small green bars looks like a typical short squeeze setup and today could be the final squeeze. If this theory holds true then from now on we’ll see overbought finally works. Let’s wait and see…
Remember cumulative tick negative divergence plus the final spike before big pullback mentioned last night? I couldn’t solve the puzzle of conflicting with the other reliable “green close” signals at that time. But now with all the other “green close” signals gone, the setup has no ambiguity anymore so a pullback should be imminent.
The bigger picture I’ll show you tonight is very bullish with even a long term buy signal triggered, so whether you believe this rally or not, be cautious in selling short.
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thanks. good to know
ReplyDeletecrazy
ReplyDeleteThe first thing every day after the market closes is to wait for your comments. Thanks! You are the best, as always.
ReplyDeleteHaha, yeah I hit refresh every few minutes waiting ;)
ReplyDeletenew to the blog... how do you calculate cumulative TICK?
ReplyDeleteThe chart is from www.sentimentrader.com. Cumulative TICK means to add, say, every daily tick readings together. This is useful to see divergence.
ReplyDeleteThanks
ReplyDeleteAh, sooooo many subscription services I never know which ones are useful.
ReplyDeleteSure looks like AH futures point to a possible top has been made - down big.
ReplyDeleteThanks Cobra
About time! It was certainly interesting to see the markets fall hard right after the close, if there is a gap down tomorrow I expect bulls will be mighty unhappy with GS and their 1150 call!
ReplyDeletePerhaps it was caused by AMEX, Micro$oft, and Amazon showing by their numbers....consumers aren't playing in this "recovery" lie being broadcast from street corners and spewed forth by the corporate/government propaganda machine. (shhh...) Consumers see reality and it sucks so they aren't buying into the depression is over lie's. Once the market realizes the propaganda machine isn't working....nothing but air will hold up the indices...
ReplyDelete-Michael
Lowry's Reports' buying pressure indicator is at 1942 levels. Look out below when selling pressure picks up. And I read a few months ago that margin debt levels had hardly been worked off despite a 50%drop in the market.
ReplyDelete-Mr. Panic
Anon...agreed! Moreover, when the 2nd biggest shopping event next to Xmas being back to school is a disaster for retailers....we may start seeing bankruptcies in the retail sector start in late fall. I guarantee you will see a wave of retailer bankruptcies come Jan-Mar time frame. The consumer is still gut shot and all the government does is try to hand them a barney band aid and tell them to 'suck it up' and spend on. Sorry ain't gonna work this time.
ReplyDelete-Michael
INTC ER and NAZ future was up 23+ by now
ReplyDeleteMSFT, AMZN, BRCM, JNPR, KLAC all down big time NAZ future down only -9
Cobra,...
ReplyDeleteSomething to think about. On Thurs at 3:45 pm the VIX was positive. It then closed ever so slightly lower. But had it been calculated again at 4:15, it would have been positive again (as the futures were selling off in after hours on weakness in MSFT, AXP, etc).
SO,..my take would be that it would be fair to view the VIX as being UP o the day,..as it was at 3:45pm, and would have been at 4:15pm,..etc.
An UP VIX, and UP SP500 suggests a lower nnext day (Fri 07-24).
Also, in support of a lower close on Fri,..I have AROON 14 Osc on $CPCE indicating a Market Top (w/in 3 days). Other short term indicators (STEM.MR, etc) are similarly overbought.
Yesterday 07-23 was my 3 wk cycle (likely pivot) date, and I am viewing it as a HIGH,..with likely turn down from a high on Friday, into a LOW on Monday or so.
Thanks for the sharing of ideas.
Regards, Jim P.