Live Update

Thursday, August 6, 2009

08/06/2009 Market Recap: Nasdaq Leads Market?

Summary:

Could be a rebound at least tomorrow morning especially QQQQ.

2 vs 2 bulls won? Not sure if I counted correctly.

Nasdaq leads market pullback this time again?

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down    
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

No conclusion today, a few interesting charts though.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), Bearish Rising Wedge target fulfilled and a new price channel could be formed, especially QQQQ which has a few positive divergences, so very likely it will rebound at least tomorrow morning.

QQQQ30min

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, if no new high today, 2 vs 2, bulls won, then the pullback could be seen as a buyable dip. Just because SPX had a new high today, so I’m not sure if it could be counted as 2 vs 2.

NvsN

As we all have noticed that Nasdaq lagged recently. Unlike SPX, Nasdaq failed to reach a new high recently. This is like a general (SPX) leads the charge while soldiers (Nasdaq) fall behind, therefore it’s a bearish sign.  I don’t know if it’s true or not, just from the chart below, the last time this happened, market had a little bigger pullback.

NDXLeadsMarket

20 comments:

  1. Just Want to say, your reviews continue to be an important piece of my daily reading.

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  2. ditto for me.. keep up the great work cobra

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  3. Cobra: you have great insights. THANKS for sharing with the rest of us. All the best to you.

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  4. I concur... (love that word :-D )

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  5. Cobra

    I always enjoy your post, I learn so much from them. Plus I love your honesty, which is so hard to find in a lot of other blogs. When you don't know you are not afraid to say it. Thanks for all you do.

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  6. Cobra,

    Thank You

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  7. Hello Cobra,...

    I know you likely are viewing the STEM.MR Models as being broken here,...but I just thought it was at least worth noting that they are both (NYSE and NASDAQ) at oversold levels.

    Also, the Intraday NYSE Cumulative Tick is approaching oversold. To me, these indicatee likelihood of next move being to the upside.

    Thanks for sharing your work. Have a good day. Regards, Jim P.

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  8. Thank you guys, I'm really touched! Hope I could do better later...

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  9. I agreew with the sentiment of everyone else. i enjoy reading Cobra Views.

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  10. Are we there yet? Yes we are.....

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/folders/Jing/media/1137b550-921f-4faa-ae6d-756c9aa31b4e

    and shameless plug for my blog....
    http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com/

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  11. Corba. I know you gonna say OVERBOUGHT again tonight.

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  12. GenX Anti-Hero, thanks.

    XMan, I won't see overbought tonight, I'll say "not oversold and not neutral".

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  13. Jim, thanks. I still pay attention to the short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com.

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  14. We probably should watch how SOX finishes today. When the two diverge as the are today, it has generally been an ST negative. Ofcourse, if the market takes out 1500 cleanly, i suppose we could see the next leg up that may induce some buying in SOX...and GS for that matter.

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  15. shoot, i was hoping for an all up day, but oil, gold and AGG are not cooperating

    FYI -- this looks nearly identical to a pattern I see that happened in a top that occurred in May. If Monday gaps down big, we're in for a sizeable pullback, probably to 930.

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  16. Finally sold my BGU. Time to bank those gains. Next week should provide a great dip buying opportunities. Still don't think we're "really" rolling over until S&P 1100-1200 so I won't jump into BGZ anytime soon. 930 seems too big of a dip right now as 1000 will be heavily defended.

    Best to all,
    -A.

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  17. Cobra,...My friend Ian updated his blog,
    discusses near term outlook for his "Master
    Cycle":

    http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2009/08/mc-update.html

    Regards, Jim P.

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  18. Jim, thanks, I saw that. I've had Ian's blog added into my feed reader so I know as soon as he has something new.

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  19. Jim: I also have a cycle meter which confirms the same. Higher highs and lower lows on SPX where the high is at about 1200 and the low is around 700 SPX for the year. Generally it predicts things bullish but a lot of times it is bearish as well. Right now it is telling that there are more bulls than bears (bullish percent index at 2007 levels) and sentiment is too high. We can easily go higher and make higher high but at the same time we can start heading down! So there we go, we all got our road maps now. Thanks to my cycle meter.

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  20. Thanks Tushar, Your cycle Meter sounds interesting. In general I agree with you,..
    if I had to pick a pattern for the next few months it would be "Trading Range". My focus is on very next day direction,..and I use end of day (EOD) index mutual funds, either Long or Short. So some days I am Long, others Short,..etc. That is why I enjoy the sharing of opinions here at Cobra's blog,..the focus tends to be on next day direction, etc. Have a good weekend. Regards, Jim P.

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