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Sunday, August 16, 2009

08/14/2009 Market Recap: ISEE Indices and ETFs Only Index Over 200

Summary:

Could be a turning point whenever ISEE Indices and ETFs Only Index is over 200.

Intraday chart pattern argues for a potential upside breakout.

Several charts argue that it might not be the time to take aggressive long positions.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral  
Short-term Down* Neutral  
My Emotion No idea   Neither believe this bull nor want to be a hero to short against it.

As mentioned in the Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary, I wasn’t sure if the ISEE index final reading was correct or not. And now, I’m still not sure, just I cannot wait anymore. The following 2 charts are my simple research about whenever ISEE Indices and ETFs Only Index over 100 and over 200. For the cases over 100, I’ve been mentioning for quite several times in the past, it usually means a down day within 2 days. There’re not lots of cases over 200, so difficult to draw a conclusion. Just since 2006, it seems that over 200 usually means very close to a turning point, which logically seems convincing because a sudden CALL volume surge should mean that big money sees something ahead which we retailers don't know yet. Besides, I know several cycles are arguing for a potential turning point next week, combining with the Friday’s unusual ISEE readings, it doesn’t look like a coincidence, does it? Well, let’s wait and see.

ISEEOver100Watch ISEEOver200Watch

I expect a green Monday. From 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) and 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), I see Symmetrical Triangle and Ascending Triangle, they both have upside breakout potentials.

SPY30min QQQQ30min

Several other charts needs keep eyes on. Overall, my feelings are that it might not be the right time to take aggressive long positions.

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), as expected, US$ rebounded. There’s a proprietary indicator (copyright protected, I cannot show here), by the way, arguing that US$ might have bottomed which is not good for the stock market.

UUPDaily

5.0.5 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index I (Weekly), 5.0.6 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index II (Weekly), quite a few most bullish ever readings. For your conveniences I’ve put all the overbought readings on the same chart. This chart is the main reason why I said it might not be the right time to take aggressive long positions.

BPIWeekly

7.3.6 Weekly STO Trading Signals, weekly signal worked pretty well since the end of 2007. It argues for SELL now.

WeeklyTradingSignals

7.3.7 NYSI Trading Signals, seems like since 2007, whenever NASI signaled before NYSI, NYSI would follow. Now NASI signaled SELL (need further confirmation though), will NYSI follow again this time?

NYSITradingSignals

7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, price down volume up last Friday. It looks to me that the recent price-volume relationships were all bearish.

RUA

19 comments:

  1. Thank you very much for sharing with us your excellent research!

    Seems NASI/NYSI are good indicators for the whole market trend.

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  2. I was looking at UUP and nice to find some confirmation here.

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  3. We will either go down this week, or bury all the shorts, me included.

    Also, option expirations week is usually biased to the downside.

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  4. i yield to Cobra's expert advice and his expertise... that said, here's my bearish point of view, some only mildy bearish... i'm sure if i had a bullish book, i could find many times more bullish charts..
    1. new highs
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHGH&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82729632533
    2. Tresury note price also you can use TLT instead of $UST for intraday, just remember they move inverse to each other, TLT up suggests down market. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST:$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95434106666
    3. bearish to me is that nasdaq comp, SPX, $indu, and the $NYA are all at resistance Fib levels.
    4. $NATV:$NYTV looks bearish to me. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATV:$NYTV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41090254241
    5. baltic dry index looks bearish . http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI:$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63040759444
    6. Shanghai index decline mildy bearish bearish http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9468/shanghaiaug14th.png
    7. energy mildy bearish http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE:$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15568996082
    8. $NYA50R bearish http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA50R&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69205708217
    9. $Trin looks bearish http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p63214741793

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  5. Hm, thanks for the blog, always nice to read!!

    If I read what you have said and think about it...
    Could we maybe have both?

    A spike tomorrow (plus 2-3%) and then the selloff?

    Normally it says that before a huge change of direction occurs there has to be the point to kill the last who doubts.
    That said, we need a spike to burn the last short standing...

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  6. Anony at 3:30pm, thanks for all the charts. I like the TRIN chart the most.

    Anony at 6:50pm, yes, could be one day spike high and then reverse hard that will look more like a turning point. Not sure if it's Monday.

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  7. Cobra,

    A little post on the USD but looking at UDN rather than UUP.

    http://macddaddy.blogspot.com/

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  8. Cobra, Do you expect a green close on monday?

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  9. Yes, Vivian, still expect good chances a green close. I know that futures are deeply in red now...

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  10. The ISEE page currently states
    "Please note: The ISEE values are currently incorrect due to a busted trade. The values will be corrected after the close."

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  11. Long @9155 -- hoping for the spike up!

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  12. Futures are about -1.8% down currently, Asia is down really big. Russian's RTS index is down -5%, oil index is down -6%. Do you really expect rally and close green today?
    Wow.
    Good luck bulls :)

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  13. It is hard to believe that this global move will reverse during the day. IMHO it is a red day and the beginning of the turn in the market.

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  14. Guessing day to day market swings is an impossible game, and Cobra does the best job around. Batting .1000 is not possible so give him some slack.

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  15. I have no disrespect for Cobra, an astounding technician. Sometimes you lose sight of the forest when you look too closely at the trees.

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  16. i think it's 1.000

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  17. Yeah, my bad. Batting .1000 would drop you to the minors in quick order.

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  18. add another indicator... "I flipped a coin" Let us know what you get. I bet it outperforms.

    ReplyDelete

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