The most noticeable event today was the CPCI shot to a multi years high at 2.09 which according to the rule I found recently, means very likely a green close tomorrow (counting dashed lines). The reading seems very unusual but I don’t find any edges from the most recent history about what it could mean on a little bit longer term.
Meanwhile, we have both SPX and VIX closed in green which by counting the red lines in the chart below, 9 out of 13 times recently a red close the next day.
Personally I lean toward a green close tomorrow. I’ll present more reasons in tonight’s report. See you there.
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thanks....
ReplyDeleteCould it be that large bets are being made on the put side?
ReplyDeletethank you very much
ReplyDeletethx, ding
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of talk on twitter about the three doji candles.
ReplyDeletehttp://search.twitter.com/search?q=doji
The last time I've seen so many people discussing a pattern was the H&S from july. This makes me think the big boys will fade retail hard, and SPX will get it's 1050.
Another thing, my 24 hour tradable SPX derivative (probably the futures) has a no gap chart. I was wondering if you studied this, and how does this fit with the "gap must be filled" SPY charts, because esentially there is no gap if you take a global look. Also, the daily candles are 0-24 GMT I think, and the small body pattern from June is much more visible than on SPY.
http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/190212/SPX.png
Considering today was supposed to be the best day in August, it was pretty lame. I would hate to see what a bad day would look like.
ReplyDeleteAnon, you don't understand statistics. What he showed you doesn't signify a "best" day or "worst" day. All it shows is the probability that today's close will be positive. THAT'S IT. And it was CORRECT. Fools and his money are soon parted.
ReplyDeleteBut the last time vix showed sell and CPCI showed buy, the next session was one of the biggest down days since March. (Aug 17th) It will be an interesting day, no matter what.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8:49pm, you mean 8/14? That day both SPX and VIX were down but today both SPX and VIX were up.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 7:52pm, thanks, you remind me too about the true meaning of the Seasonality chart.
Anon at 6:15pm, I don't believe gap must be filled, just when there're too many gaps now (9 so far) while in the past it didn't behavior like now. It's reasonable to expect at least one or two gaps to be filled within short period of time, isn't it?
shopsmart, high CPCI while ISEE indices and ETFs only index didn't reflect this readings, it could mean big guys sold lots of put?
ReplyDeleteWell, I don't quite understand, frankly, because if someone sold lots of put then should be someone buying those put, right? Then how come ISEE indices and ETFs only index didn't show anything special today?
Anon 7:52. Yeah you're right. My bad. Slap me silly, lol. What was I thinking? Probability says nothing about magnitude of the gain. Thanks for the reminder.
ReplyDelete