Summary:
Expect an up day tomorrow, not very sure though.
2 comprehensive indicators are arguing for a short-term pullback soon。
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | ||
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral | |
| Short-term | Up* | Neutral | |
| My Emotion | No idea | Neither believe this bull nor want to be a hero to short against it. |
As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, because CPCI > 1.55 so good chances a green close tomorrow. Below is the correct chart after the data error being fixed.
However, because 2 comprehensive indicators from www.sentimentrader.com are very extreme now, so I’m not very sure if we’ll see a green close tomorrow, or if we do have a green close tomorrow, it’s high likely we’ll see a pullback the day after tomorrow. Overall, my guess is that a new high is possible, just the uptrend could be in a late stage now, expect roller coaster ahead.
Smart Monday / Dumb Money Confidence, dumb money confidence is too high. The last time this high was Aug 5, the marked had a pullback thereafter. Check red vertical lines for the other times when the dumb money confidence was extremely high.
Indicators at Extremes, this combines all the indicators on www.sentimentrader.com together, whenever the spread between the total number of bullish signals and the total number of bearish signals became very large (see blue curves at bottom), a pullback always happened.
Maybe an up open and a red close would satisfy both conflicting signals? That's my hope for tomorrow. I see some potential things happening that could easily wipe out this market in a matter of sessions, such as revising the mark to market rule. Under no circumstances would I consider it safe to be long overnight at this point, unless you have a long hedge on for short positions.
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting a pullback too... but maybe only the morning.
ReplyDeletehttp://macddaddy.blogspot.com/
If you extend the sampling data to 2003 bull market, you may have different conclusion.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that on the first chart since March the dumb money was more optimistic than the smart money -- i.e., for this entire rally.
ReplyDeleteThe second chart had readings this high three other times since March. The most recent appears to be June, which was also a high. The other two didn't seem to mean much.
With futures up like this, if it is a head fake, i would expect the market to drop fast in the first 15 minutes. IF it doesnt, i think it is headed higher.
ReplyDeleteWe've got gold, oil and the market higher as of this morning. I can't tell where AGG and the dollar are, but if this is an all up day, you can bet I'll be loading the boat on shorts.
ReplyDeletei love your work man. dont want to seem like i know something anyone else doesnt, but does this market remind you of the 03 bull run that we had? i know fundamently it may be diff, but it looks alot like it on a chart.
ReplyDeleteYes, it likes 03 bull run, but this time is really different, too much free money but unfortunately none of those free money is used to produce real stuff instead they're put into the sotck market. I don't think it will end very pleasant. Just now, no point to fight aginst those free money.
ReplyDeletei agree to an extent. but i cant help the thought that this thing is extra manipulated. and short keeps getting their head handed to them. i was short into late march and lost a bunch. but if this thing is manipulated for the "good of the American people" then why would those in control push the sell button until they had all the public on board to buy this garbage?
ReplyDeleteBrilliant work as always Cobra.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your work every single day, and I dare say, so do 1000's of others.
What about the $CPC signal for tomorrow?
ReplyDeletevictorberry, check today's after bell quick summary, then you'll know.
ReplyDelete